Morgan Stanley Rethinks E&P Stocks, Slashes Estimates for Crude

• The Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE has declined 18 percent this year and 34 percent in the past 52 weeks.
• Following an energy summit this week, Morgan Stanley analysts are revising lower their estimates for WTI and Brent Crude Oil, particularly in 2017.
• In 2017, Morgan Stanley now expects WTI Crude to trade at $60, compared with $80 estimates prior – a 25 percent cut.

• The Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE has declined 18 percent this year and 34 percent in the past 52 weeks.
• Following an energy summit this week, Morgan Stanley analysts are revising lower their estimates for WTI and Brent Crude Oil, particularly in 2017.
• In 2017, Morgan Stanley now expects WTI Crude to trade at $60, compared with $80 estimates prior – a 25 percent cut.

A team of Morgan Stanley analysts led by Evan Calio released findings from the company's 6th Houston Energy Summit, where the firm met with a number of energy exploration and production companies. Morgan Stanley noted that of these, EOG Resources Inc EOG was the most bullish in terms of expectations for oil prices. The company, Calio noted, expects "US production to come off 100Mbld per month in year end," for a total decline from peak of 700 million barrels per day at year-end.

Many of the other companies that Morgan Stanley spoke with, including Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC and Apache Corporation APA, expect a more "modest" pickup in oil prices. Morgan Stanley seems to echo this view in their commodity price targets. Calio forecasted WTI at $51.07 at the end of 2015, $56.45 at the end of 2016 and $60 at the end of 2017.

Of the companies in its coverage universe, Calio said that InterOil Corporation IOC, Marathon Oil Corporation MRO and Devon Energy Corp DVN have the highest upside to the firm's price target. InterOil is 140 percent below Morgan Stanley's target price, while Marathon Oil and Devon Energy are each 72 percent below target price, according to the note. Year to date, all three names are down anywhere between 30 and 40 percent.

Morgan Stanley did note, however, that despite lowering many price targets, the firm was "constructive on the sector." Specifically, Calio said that he saw "upside risk on the commodity as well as continuation of impressive improvements in efficiencies and well performance."