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Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On May 14?

The S&P 500 climbed to another record high on Wednesday as investors piled back into semiconductor and artificial intelligence-linked stocks, brushing aside another hotter-than-expected inflation reading.

The benchmark index rose 0.58% to close at 7,444.25, while the May 14 Polymarket contract implied a 77% probability of the S&P 500 opening higher on Thursday.

Why That Number Matters

Markets continued to digest April's producer price index report, which showed wholesale inflation rising 1.4% on the month — the largest monthly increase since March 2022 and well above economist expectations for a 0.5% gain.

The inflation data added to concerns that elevated energy prices linked to the Iran war could keep price pressures higher for longer.

The Bull Case

Technology and semiconductor stocks continued to drive the broader market higher despite macroeconomic concerns.

Investors remain optimistic that AI-related demand and capital expenditure trends can continue supporting earnings growth even as other parts of the market struggle with inflation and higher oil prices.

Still, the rally in equities remained narrow, with roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks finishing lower on Wednesday.

Higher energy prices and inflation fears continued weighing on economically sensitive sectors, including financials and retail stocks.

S&P 500 futures edged up 0.12% early Thursday, signaling expectations for another muted but positive start to trading.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,409.12, above Tuesday's close of 7,400.96, meaning the May 13 Polymarket bet resolved "Up." The contract recorded traded volumes of approximately $122,498 before settling.

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