TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, today released its October 2014 sales and incentives forecast, which shows the following:
Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") for October of 16.3 million new vehicle sales.
TrueCar's 2014 full year Sales Forecast remains at 16.4 million vehicles.
New light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to reach 1,278,800 units for the month.
New light vehicle sales are up 5.9% from October 2013.
With the same number of selling days, the Daily Selling Rate (DSR) for this October is 5.9% greater than that of October 2013.
Fiat Chrysler, which began trading this month on NASDAQ, is poised to have the largest YOY gain among full-line manufacturers (+21.8%), while Ford may see the largest YOY decline in sales (-5.9%).
Subaru, which joins TrueCar's forecast table this month, may see a 27.6% YOY increase in sales.
TrueCar forecasts average incentive spending by automotive manufacturers to be $2,629 per vehicle sold in October 2014, an increase of 2.2% from October 2013 and a decrease of 11.6% from September 2014.
Registration mix expected to be 84.8% retail and 15.2% fleet for the month, compared to 85.4% retail, and 14.6% fleet last October.
Total used car sales, including franchise and independent dealerships, and private party sales, are estimated to be 3,084,040, up 2.8% compared to last October.
"Fiat Chrysler's growth, fueled by Jeep and Ram, has set up a dogfight this month, with FCA, Ford and Toyota battling for second place behind GM in total volume," said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. "Industry-wide, we're looking at the strongest October since 2004, with incentive spending at healthy levels, and on-track to finish the year at 16.4 million units."
Forecasts for the top ten manufacturers for October 2014:
Unit Sales
Manufacturer
October 2014 Forecast
% Change vs. October 2013
Fiat Chrysler
170,600
21.8%
Ford
180,000
-5.9%
GM
230,100
1.6%
Honda
124,400
8.6%
Hyundai
56,400
5.3%
Kia
42,700
7.4%
Nissan
102,100
12.2%
Subaru
44,000
27.6%
Toyota
178,500
5.6%
Volkswagen Group
48,200
7.8%
Industry
1,278,800
5.9%
Market Share
Manufacturer
October 2014 Forecast
October 2013
September 2014
Fiat Chrysler
13.3%
11.6%
13.7%
Ford
14.1%
15.8%
14.4%
GM
18.0%
18.8%
18.0%
Honda
9.7%
9.5%
9.5%
Hyundai
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
Kia
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
Nissan
8.0%
7.5%
8.3%
Subaru
3.4%
2.9%
3.3%
Toyota
14.0%
14.0%
13.5%
Volkswagen Group
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer
October 2014 Forecast
% Change vs. October 2013
% Change vs. September 2014
Total Spending
Fiat Chrysler
$3,150
3.3%
-10.8%
$538,572,302
Ford
$3,254
-2.2%
-9.4%
$585,770,133
GM
$3,302
-3.0%
-10.0%
$759,536,402
Honda
$1,920
22.5%
-12.4%
$238,121,540
Hyundai
$1,547
-9.0%
-6.9%
$89,726,000
Kia
$2,350
10.9%
-9.1%
$108,120,245
Nissan
$2,509
16.6%
-22.4%
$255,950,000
Subaru
$627
-18.7%
-9.2%
$28,822,064
Toyota
$1,922
3.8%
-11.6%
$342,180,595
Volkswagen Group
$2,542
16.7%
-8.7%
$109,304,306
Industry
$2,629
2.2%
-11.6%
$3,351,639,149
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