Piper Jaffray Gives An Earnings Preview On Ctrip.com International

Ctrip.com International CTRP is scheduled to report Q4 results on 2/13. Based on China air traffic data and Piper Jaffray's China travel pricing survey, it sees potential for Ctrip to slightly exceed the downwardly revised Street consensus. Specifically, it expects y/y revenue growth in the 35-40% range for Q4 vs. Street consensus of 37%. Ctrip will likely not exceed the midpoint of its guidance range to the degree Piper has seen in past quarters, but given the recent CTRP stock action, it thinks that is priced into shares. Regarding Q1 guidance, Piper expects the company will provide its typical conservative outlook; specifically, it expects Ctrip will guide for y/y revenue growth of 25-30% vs. current Street consensus of +36%. Piper Jaffray maintains Overweight; its $53 price target is based on 33x CY11E PF EPS, in line with our 3-year growth expectation for CTRP. Risks include competition, deceleration of economic growth in China and loss of key partners. CTRP is trading higher at $41.58