Nvidia Maintains Lead As Key AI beneficiary, Analyst Boosts Estimates After Taiwan Event

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh noted Nvidia Corp NVDA continues to see substantial opportunities with its Hopper platform and Blackwell B100/200 in the third quarter of 2024- first-quarter of 2025, and now 3nm/Rubin announced at Computex for 2026.

The analyst said Nvidia’s GB200 NVL72 full rack solution could drive a significant ASP boost in fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

Rakesh noted that Nvidia could ship 20-25K combined NVL racks in calendar 2025, delivering a potential upside to current estimates.

Fiscals 2026 and 2027 could see Nvidia ship ~25-30K NVL racks (or 30% of AI DC shipments as full Servers).

He also noted that Nvidia’s upcoming 10-1 share split, set for June 7, should create a more attractive entry point for retail investors and could provide additional share tailwinds. Rakesh reiterated a Buy rating on Nvidia with a price target of $1,275, up from $1,180, as he noted Nvidia continuing to dominate the AI accelerators and TAM growing >60% CAGR calendar years 2023–2027.

Rakesh maintained July quarter revenue and EPS at $28.2 billion and $6.27 while raising fiscal 2025 estimates from $115.4 billion and $25.70 to $120.4 billion and $27.17 (above consensus $120.1 billion and $27.06), fiscal 2026 from $147.7 billion and $32.31 to $159.6 billion and $35.54 (above consensus $158.7 billion and $35.38), and fiscal 2027 from $169.4 billion and $37.06 to $182.5 billion and $40.33 (consensus $181.0 billion and $40.83).

Nvidia announced Rubin 3nm GPU/2026 and Vera CPU for 2026 and 2027, adding HBM4 support while also doubling networking for Infiniband/SpectrumX/NVLink. According to the analyst, these will act as catalysts for Arm Holdings Plc ARM and Micron Technology, Inc MU.

Rakesh also flagged a robust Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD roadmap with upcoming MI325/350/400 and MI400, adding HBM4 and MI350, improving Inference performance 35x vs. MI300. AMD also noted a 33% Data Center compute share in the first quarter of 2024 vs ~8% in 2020 with Genoa tailwinds and Turin on deck. Rakesh reiterated a Buy rating on AMD with a price target of $215.

Rakesh had expected Intel Corp INTC to focus on AI PCs, Gaudi 3, Sierra Forest/Granite Rapids at its Computex speech on Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $45.

Photo via Shutterstock