On Tuesday, I wrote a piece outlining the massive run-up in Lions Gate Entertainment LGF shares heading into Friday's release of the highly anticipated "Hunger Games" film. Over the last three months, the stock has added 96% amid rapidly rising expectations and excitement surrounding the movie, which is expected to pack theaters this weekend. Shares are sitting at new all-time high levels and are beginning to go parabolic.
On Wednesday the stock has added another 3.60% to $15.83 on extremely heavy volume. Over 9 million LGF shares have traded hands compared to a 3-month daily average of 1.5 million. The high volume activity in the name could be a warning sign that LGF is about to experience a reversal as experienced traders "sell the news" heading into Friday's premiere.
A high risk/reward play may be to buy puts in LGF or short the stock outright looking for a pullback next week. With "Hunger Games" expectations running so high, and the stock nearly doubling in three months time, upside in the name may be limited from current levels.
One caveat: This idea is not for the faint of heart, as LGF is showing significant relative strength and could benefit from continued momentum into next week. Conversely, if "Hunger Games" misses wildly bullish sales expectations this weekend, or if traders simply decide to take profits, LGF could pull back sharply next week.
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