Fitch Ratings-New York-02 June 2014: Last quarter's GDP contraction did
little to stem the strong performance of U.S. credit card ABS, according to
the latest monthly index results from Fitch Ratings.
Despite a few seasonal bumps over the April collection period, most U.S.
credit card ABS metrics remain at or near record levels. Delinquencies
plunged to new lows while excess spread reached record highs. All signs
indicate that the health of U.S. consumers is improving, despite the
contraction in GDP during the first quarter.
Last week's announcement regarding first quarter-2014 (1Q'14) GDP indicated
that the U.S. economy contracted. According to the Bureau of Economic
Analysis, GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1% in the first three months of
the year. However there were other indicators showing the U.S. economy might
bounce back in the second quarter.
According to the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index increased
moderately for the month of May to 83.0 from 81.7. In addition, Consumer
Price Index increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis
according to the U.S. Department of Labor, contributing to solid credit ABS
performance. However, relatively flat sales could be mildly negative.
According to the Commerce Department, retail sales rose just 0.1% in April,
after notching a 1.5% gain in March. All indications still point to U.S.
credit card ABS performance staying in record territory for the near term.
After hitting a record low in April, Fitch's Prime Credit Card 60+ Day
Delinquency Index decreased another two basis points (bps) to 1.15% in May.
The decline marks a milestone for the index reaching the lowest level since
its launch in 1991. The index has declined 22% year-over-year (YOY) and now
stands 75% below its peak level reached at the end of 2009.
While the delinquency index improved, Fitch's Prime Credit Card Chargeoff
Index increased seven bps to 3.11% in May. However, the index remains down
nearly 21% YOY. Notably, the Fitch Prime Chargeoff Index is now 73% below
its historic high of 11.52% reached in September 2009.
Consistent with seasonal trends, Fitch's Prime Credit Card Monthly Payment
Rate Index declined to 26.23% in May. This index is now 12% higher YOY and
well above its historical average of 17.18%. Similarly, Fitch's Prime Credit
Card Gross Yield Index decreased 87 bps month-over-month (MOM) to reach
18.25% in May. Prime Gross Yield has declined every May since Fitch created
its credit card ABS index back in 1991.
Fitch's Prime Credit Card Three-Month Average Excess Spread Index also set a
new record during in May increasing 24 bps MOM to a new high of 13.27%.
Fitch's Prime Credit Card Index was established in 1991 and tracks over
$129.7 billion of prime credit card ABS backed by approximately $243.6
billion of principal receivables. The index is primarily comprised of
general purpose portfolios originated by institutions such as Bank of
America, Citibank, Chase, Capital One, Discover, etc.
Fitch's retail credit card indices registered positive momentum in
delinquencies and MPR in May, though gross yield and chargeoffs faired less
favorably. However, Fitch's Retail Credit Card Three-month Average Excess
Spread Index increased 12 bps MOM to 18.60%, an all-time high for the index
since its inception in 2004.
Fitch's Retail Credit Card 60+ Day Delinquency Index decreased by two bps
MOM to 2.44%in May. During the same period however, Fitch's Retail Credit
Card Chargeoff Index increased by 30 bps to 6.95%, increasing 4.51% MOM.
However, the Retail Chargeoff index remains 50% lower than its peak of
13.41% reached in March 2010.
Fitch's Retail Credit Card Gross Yield Index decreased by 87 bps to 27.52%
from the previous month, a 3.06% decrease. However, Fitch's Retail Credit
Card MPR Index increased by 57 bps MOM to 15.91%.
Fitch's Retail Credit Card Indices track more than $20 billion of retail or
private label credit card ABS backed by over $31.5 billion of principal
receivables. The index is primarily comprised of private label portfolios
originated and serviced by Citibank (South Dakota) N.A., GE Capital Retail
Bank and Comenity Bank (Formerly World Financial Network National Bank).
More than 165 retailers are incorporated including Wall-Mart, Sears, Home
Depot, Federated, Lowes, J.C. Penney, Limited Brands, Best Buy, Lane Bryant
and Dillard's, among others.
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