Hudson Securities Gives An Earnings Preview On Wyndham Worldwide

Wyndham Worldwide WYN reports 4Q10 results Wednesday morning before its 8:30 am EST conference call. Hudson Securities $0.45 4Q10 EPS estimate is a penny above the Street and the high-end of the company's $0.40-$0.44 guidance. Additionally, private equity shop Cerberus is buying timeshare operator Silverleaf Resorts for 8.7x LTM EBITDA, signaling the market may be undervaluing WYN. Private equity firm Cerberus recently acquired the timeshare company Silverleaf Resorts. Cerberus will pay $2.50 per share, which values the equity at about $95 million. Adding in net debt, Hudson Securities assumes Silverleaf has an enterprise value of $470 million. Hudson thinks WYN will produce $39 million of lodging EBITDA in 4Q10, or about 18% of segment EBITDA. WYN's 2010 adjusted lodging EBITDA guidance is $180-$200 million. It's reported $150 million through 3Q10, so implied 4Q guidance is $30-$50 million. It also estimates WYN will produce $49 million of vacation rental and exchange EBITDA, or 23% of segment EBITDA. It estimates WYN will produce $128 million of vacation ownership EBITDA, or 59% of segment EBITDA. WYN's full year adjusted vacation ownership EBITDA guidance is $425-$445 million. WYN remains attractively valued. The stock hasn't done much the past three months but it thinks that's because there aren't the intra-quarter data points like Hudson sees in gaming or pure-play lodging companies to keep investors excited about the story. Hudson has a $38 PT and Buy rating on WYN