Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) hosted its Investor Day 2025 on Wednesday, highlighting its long- and near-term outlook.
Earnings & Return Growth Outlook
At a flat $70 Brent, the company projects average annual adjusted EPS growth above 10% through 2030, rising over 14% with escalating real prices.
Combined with disciplined capital management, Chevron anticipates a more than 3% increase in return on capital employed by 2030.
Oil & Gas Projection
The company targets 2%–3% annual growth in oil and gas production through 2030.
Chevron expects oil and gas demand to reach another record high this year and is expected to continue growing year after year.
Meanwhile, Gas demand is projected to rise faster than oil, playing a key role as the energy backbone for data centers and advanced computing.
Segment Guidance
Chevron targets total upstream production to grow 2%–3% at CAGR over the next five years, driven by high-margin barrels, which should boost margins by 10% at flat pricing.
On the other hand, the company anticipates refining and marketing to generate over $4 billion in annual free cash flow at mid-cycle margins through the end of the decade.
Permian Basis & Gulf of America
In the Permian, the oil & gas giant plans to cut capital spending to about $3.5 billion starting in 2026.
The company says that as thousands of reliable base wells with slower decline rates continue producing, they will need fewer new wells each year to maintain plateau output.
Meanwhile, the company projects the Permian to generate $5 billion in annual free cash flow through 2030.
On the other hand, in the Gulf of America, the company expects to drill at least 10 to 15 exploration wells.
Over the next few years, Chevron plans to boost annual exploration spending by roughly 50%, targeting the Gulf of America, South America, West Africa, and the Mediterranean.
Cash Flow & Capex Projections
From 2024 to 2026, the company projects operating cash flow to grow three times faster than the nearest peer, supported by a 10% production CAGR (over 40% above the next best competitor).
Meanwhile, the company anticipates annual adjusted free cash flow to grow over 10% at a $70 Brent price over the next five years.
Also Read: JP Morgan Expected Big Surprises From Chevron — Instead, It Got Measured Strength
Free cash flow is expected to be aided by higher efficiency in the Shale portfolio, optimized world-scale fields in Kazakhstan and Australia, high-margin deepwater production, and diversified growth from new Chemicals projects and power solutions.
Chevron cut long-term capital spending to $18–$21 billion annually,
The company aims to keep capital expenditure and dividend breakeven below $50 per barrel of Brent through 2030 and improve return on capital employed by over 3% at $70 Brent.
The company aims for asset sales of $1–$2 billion per year through 2030.
Also, it targets divestment of $10–15 billion by 2028, of which the company has already achieved $9 billion.
Hess Integration
Chevron completed most of the Hess integration and achieved the initial $1 billion synergy target in three months, ahead of the planned 12 months.
Consequently, the company targets to boost Hess synergies to $1.5 billion alongside structural cost savings to $3 billion–$4 billion by 2026.
Discussion with Iraq
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated the company has held discussions with Iraq on exploration, noting strong interest from the Iraqi government and more attractive fiscal terms than in the past.
He added that power could play a larger role in Chevron's future strategy, though it's too early to confirm.
He also highlighted that drilling a well in Argentina costs 35% more than in the Permian Basin.
Guyana Reserve
Also, Chevron’s Vice Chairman Mark Nelson stated the company does not project Guyana reserves above 11 billion barrels but anticipates potential upside.
He added that Chevron will fully support partners' exploration efforts in Guyana and expects to drill 16–20 exploration wells annually.
CVX Price Action: Chevron shares were up 1.07% at $154.96 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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