Benzinga Reports: Stay-at-Home Orders and Economic Effects, State-by-State and Nationwide

Data Gathering & Analysis by Shrey Devulapalli

Introduction

Well over a year after news of the novel coronavirus we know now as COVID-19 hit American airwaves, the country is slowly emerging out from under the mask mandates, economic shutdowns and social distancing requirements that marked the pandemic. But even as stay-at-home orders lift entirely and people are returning to work, small businesses and large industries alike are still reeling from the economic effects of repeated closures, capacity limits and supply chain disruptions.

As with any disaster, reviewing the damage and trauma inflicted upon us as a nation and society by COVID-19 will play a large role in being able to heal and move forward, with small business owners needing the most support in recouping the economic loss and years of work undone.

Read this edition of Benzinga Reports for a clearer picture of how COVID-19 shutdown affected revenue in each state and nationwide. We also analyzed the difference in stay-at-home orders and revenue change between red and blue states, or states that voted majority Repubican or Democrat as of the 2020 election, to see if political leanings had any effect on policy that subsequently affected revenue changes.

Key Points: Stay-at-Home Orders and Economic Effects

Key Findings: Stay-at-Home Orders and Economic Effects, State-by-State and Nationwide

• States with below average stay-at-home order duration and higher-than-average revenue change over all quarters: 33.3% 
• States with above average stay-at-home order duration and lower-than-average revenue change over all quarters: 11.8% 

• 8 states, or 15.7%, have an above-average stay-at-home order duration. 
• 6 of these 8 states, or 75%, had above average decrease in revenue.
• Of these 8 states, 88% are blue states and 12% are red states.

• Of the 6 states that had an above average stay-at-home duration and above average decrease in revenue, 83.3% are blue states and 16.7% are red states.
• Of the 2 states that had an above average stay-at-home duration and lower than average decrease in revenue, there was 1 red state and 1 blue state, or 50% split.

• 43 states, or 84.3%, have a below-average stay-at-home order duration.
• 19 states, or 37.3%, have an above-average revenue change over all quarters. 
• 32 or 62.7% of states have a below-average revenue change over all quarters.

• On average, blue states had original stay-at-home orders that were 53.7 days longer than those of red states.

• Red states with above nationwide average decrease in revenue: 24.4%
• Blue states with an above nationwide average decrease in revenue: 35.3% 

• Average revenue change for blue states over all quarters: 4.54% decrease
• Average revenue change for red states over all quarters: 3.96% decrease

• The average length of the original stay-at-home order was 69 days, with several states maintaining their original order (with potential updates and changes) until recently.

• Industries that lost the most or gained the least revenue on average nationwide since the official onset of the pandemic in the United States were in the leisure and hospitality sector.

Diving Deeper: Stay-at-Home Orders and Economic Effects

While there does appear to be a slight correlation between length of shutdown, political leanings of the voting population and revenue change by state, there are several notable findings to look at more closely. Some add weight to the possibility of a correlation while others detract as outliers.

Length of Shutdown vs Revenue Loss

Notable State-by-State Findings: Shutdowns and Stay-at-Home Orders

• California issued its first stay-at-home on 3/19/2020, the earliest of all blue states.
• Alabama issued its first stay-at-home order on 3/11/2020, the earliest of all red states.
• California, a blue state, had the longest duration out of any states for its initial stay-at-home order. The shutdown lasted from 3/19/2020 to 6/15/2021, a total of 453 days.
• Massachusetts, a blue state, had the shortest duration of any states for it’s initial stay-at-home order. The shutdown lasted from 4/24/2020 to 5/18/2020
• Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming (all red states) never issued statewide economic shutdown orders, although mask mandates, social distancing or county-specific restrictions may have been or are in place.
• Hawaii and Oregon, both blue states, have not yet lifted restrictions statewide and have each set vaccination rates as the trigger point for dictating restriction policy.
• New Mexico, a blue state, will lift restrictions on 7/1/2021, with only 3 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia having restrictions in place still.
• All other states have lifted restrictions, though some may have mask mandates or different standards for vaccinated vs unvaccinated people, or allow counties to decide their policy.

Notable State-by-State Findings: Revenue Loss or Least Gained

• New York, which fully reopened on 6/15/2021 and did enact lockdown restrictions, had the largest decrease in revenue both nationwide and of the blue states at 7.58%.
• Wyoming, which never fully shut down and is a red state, saw the largest change in revenue of red states with a 7% overall decrease.

• Pennsylvania saw the most minimal change in revenue with a 1.18% decrease overall. Pennsylvania is a blue state, had an initial stay-at-home order lasting 37 days and fully lifted restrictions on 5/31/2021.
• Of red states, Alaska saw the least overall change in revenue with a 1.24% decrease overall. Alaska had an initial shutdown lasting 46 days and fully lifted restrictions as of February 2021.

• Of red states, 13 out of 26, or 50%, saw a higher than average change in revenue.
• Of blue states, 18 out of 25, or 72% saw a higher than average change in revenue.

Sector that Lost Most Revenue or Gained Least Revenue for Blue States: 

Sector that Lost Most Revenue or Gained Least Revenue for Red States

Methodology

To analyze a possible correlation between shutdown length, revenue change, top industries and political affiliation, we examined the average length of shutdown compared to individual states. We did the same for 

Sources

We used the following data points to examine potential correlations between majority political affiliation by state, length of shutdown, top industries by state and revenue loss by state and top industries. 

Sources: Shutdown Length

• Source: https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/
• Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

Sources: Top Industries By State

• Source: https://tracktherecovery.org/
• Source: https://state.1keydata.com/

Sources: Revenue Loss by State and Industry

• Source: https://tracktherecovery.org/
• Source: https://state.1keydata.com/

Benzinga Reports: Data Studies and Analysis