It’s been a tough year for electric vehicle manufacturers, but have EV stocks finally turned the corner? Some investors certainly think so, as shares of EV makers like Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) have rebounded sharply over the last few weeks after a dreadful run to open 2024. Is this recent rally for real or do EV companies still have rough terrain ahead? In this article, we’ll discuss the outlook for one of America’s lesser-known EV makers, Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) and how it plans to compete with the big boys in the years to come.
Current Overview of Lucid Stock
As a fledgling American EV maker, Lucid Group has faced a bumpy ride in recent years. While its luxury electric vehicles (especially its flagship Lucid Air sedan) have garnered praise for their performance and design, the company has struggled with production challenges and financial pressures. These factors have contributed to significant volatility in the stock price and mixed prognostications from market analysts.
Recent events and issues surrounding Lucid Group’s stock include concerns about its cash burn rate, production capacity and competition from other vehicle manufacturers with a firm market share grip. The Lucid Air sedan, designed to compete with cars like the Tesla Model S or Mercedes-Benz EQS, began production in 2021 and sold more than 6,000 units in 2023, according to the company’s Q4 2023 results. The Lucid Air’s premium models get an impressive 410 miles of range per charge, tops in the industry.
Despite only having a single product on the market, Lucid Group has big plans for the future. A luxury electric SUV called the Lucid Gravity is in the works, scheduled for release in the 2025 model year. The Gravity can seat up to seven passengers and Lucid claims it will get 440 miles per full charge. Additionally, Lucid has announced a deal with renowned British automaker Aston Martin to produce battery tech and drivetrains for its future line of electric vehicles.
Methodology for Stock Price Prediction
Our Lucid stock price prediction is based on three crucial factors: technical analysis, fundamental analysis and analyst reports and opinions.
- Technical analysis is a method of forecasting future price movements by analyzing past price data and trading volume. Investors use technical indicators to identify trends, patterns and support and resistance levels. Some common technical indicators used to analyze volatile stocks, such as LCID, include the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator, which measure momentum or chart patterns like pennants or double tops to spot reversals.
- Fundamental analysis attempts to determine a company's intrinsic value by analyzing its financial statements, cash flow, future projects, management skills, broader industry trends and market competition. Fundamental analysis can be a mundane task. You’ll need to know how to read income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements and occasionally listen to conference calls for guidance from executives.
- Today, ‘Expert opinion’ is often used in a derogative fashion. However, analysts who cover public companies perform in-depth research and have unique access to management and insiders. Analysts frequently differ on their opinions of the companies they cover, but their reports can be used to form a consensus, which is how we find price targets and average stock ratings.
Lucid Stock Price Prediction for 2024
As of October 15, LCID stock was trading at $2.53, leaving it in the red for 2024. The company’s market cap stands at $7.62 billion, putting it firmly back near the top of the mid-cap stock category after dropping below $6 billion in June 2024.
Despite this recent revival, every LCID stock forecast shows the company struggling to regain its previous all-time high, which occurred in early 2021 during the height of meme stock mania. Lucid Group didn’t go public using the traditional initial public offering (IPO) method. Instead, the company leaned into the market rebound that followed the 2020 COVID crash and merged with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). SPACs are public companies explicitly designed to buy private companies, hence the nickname ‘blank check company.’
Churchill Capital Corp IV, which used to trade under the ticker CCIV, existed well before merging with Lucid. The stock’s all-time high of $64.86 occurred before the merger was finalized in July 2021. In January, CCIV was swept up in the meme stock craze and jumped from $10 to close to $65 in the weeks before the February acquisition announcement. Once CCIV became LCID in July, the stock languished around $20 before jumping over $57 again in November.
The stock suffered significant losses in 2022 and 2023 and is still down year-to-date. However, the 2024 rally may still have a road forward. The stock’s 50-day moving average crossed back above the 200-day moving average in December, a bullish technical signal. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 52.86, well below the overbought threshold of 70. Volatility is the standard with stocks like LCID, but technical indicators hint that this rebound could be for real.
Lucid Stock Price Prediction for 2025
Trading under $4 is a far cry from the roller coaster $60 days of 2021; can LCID shares ever regain their previous level? According to analysts covering the stock, even a return to the double-digit range would be a major victory for the beaten-down automaker.
As 2025 approaches, LCID stock is covered by 15 different analysts, with price targets ranging from $2 to $12. The consensus Lucid price target is $5.04, representing an upside of more than 99%. However, the most recent report came from Cantor Fitzgerald, a firm that gives the stock a $3 price target.
Fundamental data isn’t looking optimistic, either. Lucid Group has yet to turn a profit and has missed earnings or revenue in the last nine quarterly reports. Sales growth has been slow and volatile. The company reported over $257 million in revenue in Q4 2022, which dropped to $149 million in Q1 2023 as preorders were filled and new buyers failed to materialize. Lucid reported $200 million in revenue in Q2 2024 and lost 29 cents per share, missing the 26-cent loss predicted by analysts.
Lucid Stock Price Prediction for 2030
Making a Lucid stock forecast for 2030 depends on several internal and external factors. A lot can happen in five years, but Lucid Group is a small fish in a large pond, even in EVs. Producing 8,000 and delivering 6,000 vehicles in a year would be a disaster for larger rivals like Tesla and Rivian and Lucid Air has failed to put much of a dent in competitor sales.
Lucid Group does have a few arrows in its quiver, though. The Lucid Air has received rave reviews for its design, efficiency and safety. Car and Driver gave it a rare 10/10 score, citing its acceleration, interior layout and high mileage range to justify the $71,000 price tag. Motor Trend also gave the Lucid Air an 8.9/10 score for excellent handling, acceleration and cargo space.
Lucid Group may not need to surpass rivals like Tesla (or incoming legacy automakers like Ford or GM) to be successful. If Lucid can establish itself as one of the premium luxury brands in the EV space, it has a path to differentiate itself and market sedans and SUVs to high-end consumers. But the current cash burn rate is troubling - Lucid Group posted a net loss of $2.83 billion in 2023 and lost another $643 million in Q2 2024. Lucid’s Saudi backers have deep pockets, but the company will eventually need to stem these losses to make investors happy.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Lucid stock a buy hold or sell?
According to the 15 analysts Benzinga has found covering LCID stock, the average rating is a Sell. Despite several price targets above the stock’s current market value, the latest analyst revisions and price target reductions have been downgraded.
What is the fair value of Lucid stock?
Judging the fair value of Lucid stock is difficult since the company has yet to turn a profit and any stock price appreciation is based more on future potential than current fundamentals. The consensus price target from analysts is $5.04, although more recent numbers have lowered that to $3.
Who is holding Lucid stock?
Lucid has many institutional shareholders, such as the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, which currently owns 60% of the company’s shares. Other institutional investors include Vanguard, Fidelity and State Street.
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About Dan Schmidt
Dan Schmidt is a finance writer passionate about helping readers understand how assets and markets work. He has over six years of writing experience, focused on stocks. His work has been published by Vanguard, Capital One, PenFed Credit Union, MarketBeat, and Fora Financial. Dan lives in Bucks County, PA with his wife and enjoys summers at Citizens Bank Park cheering on the Phillies.