Electric vehicles have taken a back seat to other tech investment trends in the last few years. However, while sales growth has slowed, EVs on the road increase yearly. And it's not just legacy carmakers putting these vehicles into action - multinational startups like Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO) are producing cars and battery technology to improve performance. Nio is an exciting company to keep an eye on in this space. Today, we’ll look at some of Nio’s underlying numbers and try to project where the stock could go in the next few years.
Current Overview of Nio Stock
The NIO share price closed on December 17 at $5.51, which puts the stock down more than 46.08% year-to-date. Although most of the EV sector has taken a hit in 2024, this decline is quite steeper than startups like Rivian Automotive (Nasdaq: RIVN), down 30.33% YTD, while large competitors like Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) is up 93.16% YTD. Despite its recent struggles, NIO stock still has a market cap of over $9.48 billion and around 70 million shares are traded daily on average.
Based in Shanghai, Nio Inc. was founded in 2014 and had its initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange in 2018. In addition to producing a line of EVs, Nio's approach to battery power has garnered attention from investors. Instead of charging stations, Nio has constructed battery-swapping technology, where drivers can replace drained batteries in automated service stations in as little as three minutes.
Nio’s vehicles come in three packages: a sports car, sedans and a line of SUVs seating five to seven people. The company has eight vehicle models on the road, with an additional three in prototype or concept stages. The EP3 Coupe was the company’s first offering, a 2-door sports car with a 265-mile range and 194 mph top speed. However, the EP3 is a track-only model and not available for purchase. Some of the company’s vehicles currently available include:
- ET7 Sedan - The company’s flagship model, the ET7, is a full-size luxury sedan with all-wheel drive and a range of up to 648.7 miles. It is Nio’s competitor to the popular Tesla Model S in China. In 2022, the company produced over 23,000 ET7 vehicles.
- ES6 SUV – Over 73,000 vehicles were produced in 2022, making the ES6 Nio’s most in-demand model. The crossover SUV has five doors and includes battery-swapping technology, so drivers can utilize swapping stations. The current generation models have a range of up to 329 miles.
- ES8 SUV - As the company’s full-size SUV model, the ES8 seats seven and has four-wheel drive. A fully charged ES8 has a range of about 311 miles, and the company gave the car a significant face-lift in 2022.
In addition to vehicle and battery production, Nio was granted a permit to test its autonomous driving technology in California in 2014. The company also produces a line of smartphones, which launched in China in September 2023.
Methodology for Stock Price Prediction
Predicting the long-term performance of any individual stock is a complex endeavor requiring plenty of company-specific due diligence. You must also pay attention to economic and geopolitical matters, especially when doing Nio stock analysis since it’s a large Chinese multinational firm and tensions between China and the United States remain elevated.
When making our Nio stock forecast, we incorporated the following three concepts into the analysis: Combining short- and long-term price signals, fundamental data and expert opinions helps form more accurate predictions.
- Technical Analysis - Short-term price analysis often relies on technical signals, which can spot patterns or changes in volume that potentially precede large price movements. Concepts like support and resistance are combined with indicators like moving averages, volume and oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to help preemptively identify short-term trading opportunities. Technical analysis can be helpful in short-term scenarios where fundamental data might take longer to play out.
- Fundamental Analysis – Fundamental analysis involves Using data like earnings, debt, price ratios, sales growth and net margins in stock research. It can help provide a long-term road map for a company’s future prospects. For instance, if Nio continues to show accelerating sales growth over four consecutive quarters, it will likely positively impact the Nio stock price.
- Analyst Projections and Price Targets - It's nearly impossible for retail investors to cover every nook and cranny of the market, so we rely on analyst reports and price targets to help guide our projections. Not every analyst will agree in their reports on specific companies, but we can use their analysis to form a consensus on expected price movements and long-term stability.
Nio Stock Price Prediction for 2024
While NIO has shown potential with its innovative products and expanding market presence, several factors could weigh down its stock price in 2024. Technical analysis shows NIO stock has been under pressure, trading well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Analysts have become less bullish on the stock in recent months. When NIO launched the ES8 redesign in 2022, the stock had 12 Buy ratings and a consensus price target near $50. Today, only two analysts rate the stock as a Buy, while nine others have downgraded to Neutral or Sell. Despite these reductions, the consensus price target is still $4.73, representing an upside of 4.20%. However, if current trends continue, the rest of 2024 could be a struggle for Nio’s value. The company reported earnings on last September 5, and investors will need improved guidance signals to see the stock rally into the end of 2024.
Nio Stock Price Prediction for 2025
If NIO stock price history is any indication, volatility will likely continue into 2025. However, specific fundamental figures must change if NIO shares want to sustain a rally next year. The company’s revenue growth has slowed significantly, and the company’s most recent earnings report did little to assuage investor concerns.
In its March earnings release, Nio reported just over $9 billion in revenue for Q4 2023, a stark decline of 42% from the previous quarter. The company’s Q3 2023 earnings release reported $17.1 billion in revenue, a decline of 10% from Q2 2023. The company has yet to profit and reported a loss of $5.26 billion in Q4 2023.
Additionally, the United States presidential election could significantly influence foreign car manufacturers like Nio, especially those in China. Increasing tariffs or import limitations could hurt Nio’s vehicle sales in the United States. Analyst price targets range from $4.47 to $4.73, but the actual price range could be significantly lower if growth stalls or geopolitical pressures ramp up.
Nio Stock Price Prediction for 2030
Predicting where a volatile EV maker like Nio Inc. will go in 2030 is difficult at the current time. While EV sales growth has slowed in the last year, total vehicle sales continue to rise. According to Statista Market Insights, over 13.4 million electric vehicles were sold in 2023, with more than 9.2 million coming from electric battery-powered models. While only modest growth is projected for 2024 (13.7 million) and 2025 (14.4 million), the number of EVs sold is expected to surpass 18.8 million by 2029, with more than 14.2 million sales of battery-powered models.
But despite these forward projections, Nio has tough armor to crack if it wants to become a major player in this space. As of 2024, Tesla Inc. continues to dominate EV sales, with nearly 40% of the market. BYD is 2nd with 15.6% of EV sales, followed by Volkswagen at 4.5%. To see analysts bump their NIO price target, the company will need to expand sales growth into the United States and Europe and utilize some of its more exciting underlying technologies like autonomous driving AI and its battery-swapping stations.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Nio stock?
NIO is the stock representing Nio Inc., an electric vehicle and battery tech manufacturer based in Shanghai, China. The company has an $8 billion market cap and trades on the NYSE under the ticker NIO.
How much is NIO Stock?
At the close of trading on Tuesday, September 30, NIO stock was priced at $5.51 per share, more than 37% lower than the current consensus analyst price target of $7.55.
When does Nio report earnings?
Nio Inc. released its latest earning report last September 5, after the end of the trading day.
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About Dan Schmidt
Dan Schmidt is a finance writer passionate about helping readers understand how assets and markets work. He has over six years of writing experience, focused on stocks. His work has been published by Vanguard, Capital One, PenFed Credit Union, MarketBeat, and Fora Financial. Dan lives in Bucks County, PA with his wife and enjoys summers at Citizens Bank Park cheering on the Phillies.