With the pandemic’s impact on real estate subsiding, you may wonder what the future of the real estate market might look like.
Residential, commercial and industrial properties are experiencing different conditions. The residential market is challenging for buyers and sellers, while commercial real estate investment is slow. Industrial real estate is healthy but seeing increasing vacancies.
The mixed market and shifting dynamics can make any real estate investing forecast difficult. However, this look at the forecast for the next five years reveals some of the potential opportunities and challenges that may lie ahead for investors.
Key Factors Shaping the Next 5 Years in Real Estate
- Remote work will continue to impact all real estate sectors in different ways
- Technology, from AI to property management, is reshaping the industry
- The housing shortage continues to push up prices and push out buyers
- The flight from large cities to suburbs and rural areas continues
- Demographic shifts see baby boomers downsizing and millennials buying
- The increased desire for sustainability will impact building and buying
- Extreme weather, coastal erosion and flood risks could influence property values
- Zoning, building codes and property tax policies all affect real estate
- Falling inflation and rising wages may support a minimal rise in home prices
- Geopolitical hot spots could dampen consumer sentiment for big purchases
Predictions for Key Metrics for Investing in Real Estate
The current real estate investing forecast shows promise by highlighting two key metrics: capitalization rates (cap rates) and return on investment (ROI).
The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to slide down to the mid-3% range in 2025, putting downward pressure on cap rates. Additional downward pressure is expected from rent growth and returns from income.
Over the next five years, cap rates are expected to slowly compress. Industrial and multifamily cap rates are expected to stabilize at around 4.5%, office cap rates at 5% and retail cap rates at 4.6%, all above pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, price growth is expected to slow down. Rapid increases seen after the pandemic are not expected to recur. The real estate prediction is for prices to increase 1% – 2% annually, leading to a total appreciation of 13% – 14% by 2028, compared to 2023.
Several areas in the U.S. are primed to deliver high growth in real estate prices, rental income and development activity because of economic and population growth, demographics, infrastructure and employment growth.
Here are some of the hot spots expected to continue attracting real estate investment:
- Austin, Texas
- Nashville, Tennessee
- Raleigh and Durham, North Carolina
- Phoenix, Arizona
- Orlando, Florida
These cities and regions have become centers of economic growth, technology, tourism and more.
Other areas emerging as popular destinations for real estate dollars include Boise, Idaho and Charlotte, North Carolina. Key drivers in these markets are technology and innovation, institutes of higher learning and research centers, transportation and infrastructure, culture and economic growth.
The imbalance in the supply and demand for housing was largely responsible for driving up the price of homes between 2020 and 2022. However, over the next five years, you can expect to see an increase in the number of homes available as new construction picks up in 2025 and possibly catches up with demand by 2028.
Still, experts foresee the housing market remaining competitive due to jobs and population growth as well as the constraint of limited land.
Key Real Estate Sectors to Watch
Here are the standout real estate sectors to keep an eye on over the next five years:
Residential Real Estate
The market for single-family homes is likely to remain somewhat tight because of a shortage. However, multifamily homes are expected to be available. While rents are projected to flatten over the next five years, they’ll likely rise faster for single-family homes than for multifamily ones.
Commercial Real Estate
Remote and hybrid work is here to stay, contributing to falling demand for office space. However, small retail real estate, such as shopping plazas, will be well-supported by consumer spending, while traditional malls will continue to struggle.
Although vacancies are rising, e-commerce and manufacturing continue to support a healthy industrial real estate sector.
Mixed-Use Properties
Office and retail spaces are being converted to mixed-use properties that combine residential, retail and office space, diversifying the tenant mix and enhancing the visitor experience.
If you’re a real estate investor or plan to be, you can expect a pickup over the next five years.
Global Trends Affecting U.S. Real Estate Investing
Real estate investing isn’t only local – it’s also global. A reliable real estate prediction for the next five years must therefore include a discussion about foreign investment, global economic conditions and cross-border investment.
Foreign Investment
From April 2023 to March 2024, foreign investment in single-family homes in the U.S. hit its lowest level since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) began tracking foreign investment in 2009. Foreign sales dropped 36% and the dollar volume, at $42 billion, was down 21%.
The foreign retreat from the American housing market aligns with the problems U.S. buyers face, namely high prices and too few houses. But foreign investors are also paying more because of a strong U.S. dollar.
The pullback could lead to a more balanced housing market for American homebuyers and encourage more domestic real estate investment.
Global Economic Conditions
The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been varied, with some countries recovering faster than others. The high cost of borrowing money and concurrent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East will likely keep global growth slower than historical levels, dampening investment prospects in U.S. real estate.
Cross-Border Investment
Through cross-border investment strategies, you can diversify your real estate holdings in international markets, spreading your investments across different countries and regions to reduce risk and minimize exposure to local market fluctuations.
You stand to find higher rental yields and lower prices than the U.S. market. You may also be able to take advantage of growth in emerging economies or buy assets that you might not be able to purchase in the U.S. market, such as beachfront villas and historical properties.
Conducting thorough research on global trends can help you act when opportunities arise in foreign and U.S. markets.
Watch the Shifting Market to Find New Investment Opportunities
The real estate investing forecast for the next five years clearly shows that the real estate market in the U.S. is evolving.
Based on current trends, housing prices will likely continue to stabilize, rents will flatten and single-family and multifamily housing will likely remain in demand. The shift to remote and hybrid work will further challenge office space, while retail and industrial real estate are projected to perform well.
Watching the real estate market can help you focus on the factors influencing real estate investments over the next five years. By staying attuned to the shifting marketplace, you can find opportunities among the challenges ahead by investing in real estate through platforms like Arrived Homes, Fundrise or Mogul Club.