The North Korean economy is experiencing a quiet resurgence, thanks to its arms sales to Russia, which could potentially reduce the likelihood of a military conflict, according to a recent report.
What Happened: North Korea’s economy is showing signs of improvement, with the growth rate set to reach its highest level in nearly a decade, reported Bloomberg on Thursday. This growth is being driven by Kim Jong Un’s sales of military equipment, including ballistic missiles and artillery shells, to support Russia’s activities in Ukraine.
According to Anwita Basu, head of Europe Country Risk for BMI, North Korea’s economy could expand by 0.5% this year, the most significant growth since 2016. This increase, she says, is partially due to the revenue generated by the country’s defense sector.
With North Korea’s improved economy, the recent provocative talk of war might be mere bluster. Analysts suggest that the economic boost from the sales of weaponry to Russia and growing trade with China reduces the pressure on Kim to resort to military conflict.
While the situation remains tense, the economic lifeline provided by Russia might just be the key to preventing a full-scale conflict in the Korean Peninsula.
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Why It Matters: This economic upturn comes at a time when North Korea is grappling with a severe food crisis. In a recent address, Kim highlighted the critical nature of the country's ongoing food crisis, emphasizing the urgent need to address the shortages. The economic boost from arms sales to Russia could potentially alleviate some of the pressure on North Korea’s food crisis.
Additionally, North Korea has been reevaluating its reconciliation efforts with South Korea. Kim had announced plans to launch three additional spy satellites in 2024 while reassessing its reconciliation efforts with South Korea amid strained relations. The recent economic boost could potentially influence North Korea’s future diplomatic and military decisions.
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