Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican candidate, is just ahead of his likely Democratic rival President Joe Biden in key swing states, according to the results of a new IPSOS poll published on Thursday. The slight edge may have to do with voter discontent over the way the president has carried out his responsibilities, especially his handling of the economy, immigration and foreign relations.
Trump Ahead, But … : When respondents from the seven swings states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada were asked their choice for president, Trump holds a slight edge but not sufficient, but the support is not enough to prove to be decisive. Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. was a distant third.
This preferences of likely voters are as follows:
| % favoring each candidate | |
| Biden | 35% |
| Trump | 37% |
| Kennedy | 6% |
| Other candidate | 4% |
| Would not know | 4% |
| Don’t know | 15% |
| Skipped | – |
Trump has a two-point lead over Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a three-point lead in Arizona and Nevada, while the two are neck-and-neck in Georgia and North Carolina.
When voters who opted for choices other than the mainstream candidates were asked to choose between Biden and Trump, the latter took a bigger lead. These likely voters were, however, allowed the option to skip the question. Overall, the former president leads his successor by a three-point margin, with the tally at 50%-47%. Three percent chose to skip the question. Trump’s biggest lead was in the Midwest (4%). In the Southwestern states, he led by a mere 1%.
Likely voters in these states were also asked about their choice of candidates for the House of Representatives. Republicans have a slight lead, with 37% of voters saying they will choose a Republican representative and 36% favoring a Democratic representative. In the Midwest, 38% favor Republican representatives, while 37% favor Democrats. Similarly, in the Southeast, 38% favor Republican representatives, and 34% favor Democrats.
In the Southwestern states, the tables turned, with 36% picking Democrats and 34% Republicans.
Biden’s Poor Approval Rating: Voters’ choices appear to be influenced by how they perceive Biden’s performance as president. Overall in the swing states, Biden has an anemic 33% job approval rating, while 58% of voters are disenchanted with him. Eight percent said they are unsure and 1% chose to skip the question.
Trump won over more respondents than Biden on key election issues in the swing states. The proportion of people who backed the two candidates as the one with a better plan, policy or approach to these issues are as follows:
| Biden | Trump | |
| Healthcare | 35% | 28% |
| Immigration | 26% | 44% |
| Political extremism or threats to democracy | 30% | 33% |
| Economy, unemployment, and jobs | 31% | 44% |
| War, foreign conflicts, or terrorism | 28% | 40% |
| Crime or corruption | 28% | 37% |
*The percentages don’t add up to 100% as those choosing other options such as “other,” “don’t know,” “none” and “skipped” aren’t tabulated here.
When the respondents were asked about their choice in 2020, overall 26% said they did not vote and 35% each said they voted for Trump and Biden. Thirty-seven percent of Midwestern voters said they voted for Biden in 2020 versus 36% who said they voted for Trump. Twenty-four percent from this region said they did not vote.
Pennsylvania could offer clues to which way the 2024 election is headed, Wall Street Journal said in a report this week. Trump, though ahead, may not be on a firm ground, going by a high percentage of undecided voters.
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