Trump Vs. Harris: Latest Poll Shows Vice President Leading In Key Swing State For First Time, Paving Way For A Potential Narrow Victory

The initial ripples Vice President Kamala Harris created after her late entry into the 2024 presidential race are now slowly settling, with some pollsters beginning to call it a close race. Against the backdrop, new poll results published Tuesday showed she still holds the edge, thanks to the advantage she has in some key swing states.

Harris Nudges Ahead: Harris will likely win the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, giving her 270 electoral college delegates, a poll commissioned by Telegraph and conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found. Republican candidate Donald Trump was just trailing with 262 delegates.

This is the first time in the presidential cycle that the Democratic candidate is pushing ahead, albeit with a slender lead, in the Telegraph’s poll.

The tally suggests Harris will likely take the same path to the White House as President Joe Biden in 2020, riding on the majority support in the Midwestern Rust Belt states, the report said.

The poll projected a victory for Trump in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while in Nevada, both are tied at 47% support for each.

The projection of nationwide results assumes the remaining 43 states would vote the same way they did in 2020.

In North Carolina, though, Trump’s support fell by two points since the Telegraph’s previous poll conducted ahead of the Democratic National Convention. Harris trailed by only one point each in North Carolina and Arizona.

See Also: Inflation, Jobs And Taxes: How Trump And Harris’ Economic Policies Differ

Trust, Favorability: Harris’ competitive positioning is reflective of the positive rating she had in all seven states, the pollster said. This is in contrast to the net negative approval rating that Biden enjoyed in all but Georgia.

The economy was mentioned as the most important election by a majority of voters in the swing states. Most said their personal finances worsened over the last year.

Voters in five of the seven states trusted Trump more with respect to handling the economy, while those in Georgia and Nevada preferred Harris.

Trump’s Path To White House: It is also possible that Trump will win 270 electoral college votes – the number needed to win the 2024 election, if he wins Pennsylvania, as well as North Carolina and Georgia – two states he is currently ahead.

Analysis of the results suggests Trump also has a route to 270 electoral college votes if he wins Pennsylvania and the states of North Carolina and Georgia, where he is ahead.

If Trump cannot win back Pennsylvania, which he ceded to Biden by a narrow margin in 2020, he could still get 270 delegates by securing the most votes in North Carolina and three battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, two of which Harris has an upper hand currently.

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