Cryptocurrency punters are skeptical that President Donald Trump's proposed $2,000-per-person tariff "dividend" will materialize in 2025.
Bookmakers Not Too Excited
The odds of Trump creating a tariff dividend, either by signing a federal legislation or through an executive order, on or before Dec. 31, stood at only 16% on Polymarket.
A little over $100,000 has been wagered on the bet. The market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump formally creates the dividend within the time frame, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
Furthermore, a payment made to U.S. taxpayers would be eligible if it is clearly attributed to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
Similarly, bettors on Kalshi, a federally licensed prediction platform, set 16% chances on Americans receiving tariff stimulus payouts this year.
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Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket lets users bet on outcomes using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. Note that unlike Kalshi, it is not currently available to U.S. residents.
Dividend In Form Of Direct Payments Or…?
The speculation follows Trump's announcement that every American will receive a minimum of $2,000 financed through tariff revenues. He called critics of his aggressive tariff policy “FOOLS” and claimed the duties have turbocharged the economy.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the idea of a single new payment program, instead suggesting that dividends may arrive through other means rather than checks in the mail.
Economist Peter Schiff found fault with the decision, stating that the dividends will exceed tariff revenue. He argued that people will use the extra money to buy more expensive imports, further widening U.S. trade deficits.
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