Economist Mohamed El-Erian is raising concerns regarding the Trump administration’s decision not to publish the October Consumer Price Index and U.S. jobs report, arguing that the move is likely to spark public suspicion, with markets and policymakers already flying blind.
Not Releasing Will ‘Fuel Conspiracy Theories’
On Wednesday, in a post on X, El-Erian warned that the administration’s decision not to publish key economic data during the prolonged shutdown was “virtually guaranteed to fuel conspiracy theories.”
According to El-Erian, “the government shutdown derailed that data collection process,” creating a gap that agencies cannot easily repair, leaving agencies like the Federal Reserve, policy makers and investors flying blind with no authoritative data sources to reflect the true state of the economy.
See Also: 3 Stocks To Consider Buying On Record Job Cuts
He also cautioned that any attempt to rapidly reconstruct or backfill missing information carries significant risks of inaccuracy. “Trying to catch up on data collection is not just technically tricky; it may also be relatively inaccurate,” he said.
El-Erian emphasized that people should “remember these three things” when evaluating the situation, which is the original schedule, the shutdown-driven disruption and the potential accuracy issues tied to any rushed data fixes.
Discouraging Unofficial Jobs Data
While the official jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics remains held up due to the shutdown, several unofficial reports from private organizations have confirmed a slowdown in the job market.
This includes the report released by payroll processor ADP, which revealed that private sector employers added just 42,000 jobs in October, which, while positive, marks a months-long trend of declining job creation, with the tariffs, trade tensions, and AI beginning to weigh on the market.
Similarly, data from the Carlyle Group‘s proprietary reporting showed that hiring activity had nearly come to a halt in September, before the government shutdown. This marked its weakest-ever report since the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession of 2020.
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