Swing State Renters Still Struggling, But Earning 17% Less Is An Improvement From 2020

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An issue weighing on swing state voters is the challenge of rental affordability. Many continue to grapple with housing costs that stretch their budgets to the breaking point.

Recent data issued by Redfin finds that the typical swing state renter now earns about 17% less than needed to comfortably afford the median-priced apartment. While this is an improvement from the 21% shortfall seen during the last election cycle, it highlights the ongoing struggle many face in securing affordable housing.

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The Redfin analysis examined rental markets in swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

Arizona improved most among the findings. Renters in the Grand Canyon State have seen gains in affordability since 2020, with the income gap shrinking from 12.4% to just 2.6%. That move has been attributed to a 32.2% increase in median renter household income, outpacing the 18.9% rise in median asking rents.

Not all swing states have fared as well, though. 

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Michigan is the sole swing state where rental affordability has worsened since the last election. The typical renter household now earns 16.3% less than needed for comfortable housing costs, deteriorating from the 11.2% shortfall in 2020. According to Redfin, the decline is partly due to a sharp 12.4% jump in asking rents over the past year, the steepest increase among the swing states.

Pennsylvania, meanwhile, has the most challenging renter landscape. With the highest median asking rent ($1,747) among the swing states and one of the lowest estimated median renter household incomes ($49,168), Pennsylvanians face a 29.6% income shortfall when it comes to affording the typical apartment.

Chief Economist at Redfin, Daryl Fairweather, said there is a disconnect between economic indicators and lived experiences. “While the economy has been improving on paper, that’s not what it feels like for many U.S. families,” Fairweather said in the report. “Many renters – especially young people – still feel the rent is too damn high.”

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That sentiment could play an important role in shaping voter priorities as candidates crisscross battleground states. Their plans to address the housing affordability crisis will likely face scrutiny from voters feeling the pinch of high rental costs.

While the current landscape shows signs of improvement, the average swing state renter still spends about 36% of their income on housing – above the 30% threshold widely considered the benchmark for affordability. The figure has come down from nearly 39% during the last election cycle.

Experts point to the pandemic-era building boom as a factor in tempering rent increases. The surge in apartment supply has put downward pressure on rents in some markets, with Arizona seeing a notable 4.6% decline in asking rents over the past year.

As the election approaches, the gap between incomes and rental costs could be a potent force in shaping the political landscape of America’s swing states.

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