Yet another poll confirmed on Wednesday that the presidential race would be a very tight one.
The Matchups: President Joe Biden received 48% support, only a point more than his predecessor Donald Trump in a new Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters. Six percent of the respondents said they would vote for somebody else, or wouldn’t vote, or were undecided or refused to vote.
Party-wise analysis of data showed each candidate faring equally well among their own voter base. But Trump had an edge over Biden among independent voters. Trump called the shots with men voters and with voters who did not have a four-year college degree or white-collar job.
The poll surveyed 1,374 self-identified registered voters between May 16 and May 20, with the margin of error at +/-2.6 percentage points.
A five-way matchup involving independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party’s Jill Stein showed both Biden and Trump lost a slice of their voters, but the president increased his lead over his predecessor by three points, with the tally at 41% to 38% in favor of him. Kennedy received 14% support, while West and Stein were picked by 2% of the respondents each.
“There is no clear leader in either of these matchups as the leads are within the margin of error, making the race too close to call,” the pollster said.
Fickle-Minded Voters? The poll also found that 19% of voters in the five-way matchup said it is either very likely (3%) or somewhat likely (16%) that they will change their minds about their choice before the election.
The proportion of Biden, Trump, and Kennedy supporters who said they would likely change their minds are 15%, 8%, and 52%, respectively.
“Call them fair weather, call them unsure. A sizeable block of registered voters is still juggling candidates, with Kennedy voters particularly swayable and Trump voters less inclined to bail on their candidate,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Presidential Debate: Now that the two likely contenders of the 2024 election have agreed on televised debates, the poll sought responses regarding it. Seventy-two percent of the respondents said they would watch the televised debate scheduled for late June.
“Get out the popcorn, pull up a chair, it is must-see TV and if the past is any indication, the gloves will likely come off early and often,” Malloy said.
Trump’s Hush-Money Trial: Trump is fighting a criminal case in New York over the payment he made to adult movie star Stormy Daniels to keep under wraps an alleged sexual affair he had with the latter. The case assumes significance because it is the only one out of Trump’s four criminal cases that would likely reach a verdict before the Nov. 5 election.
Seventy percent of voters said they were following news regarding the trial and 60% said they think the charges against Trump in this trial are serious. Forty-six percent of voters believed Trump did something illegal, while 29% believed he did something unethical but nothing illegal, and 21% believed he did not do anything wrong.
When voters were probed if they would vote for Trump if he gets convicted in the case, 6% of the Trump voters said they would be less likely to vote for him compared to 24% who said they would be more likely to vote for him, and 68% said it would not make a difference to their votes.
“Will a conviction sink Trump? The vast majority of his supporters say it would be no big deal. But in an extremely tight race, that 6 percent could tip the balance,” said Malloy.
Read Next: How To Invest In Startups
Image made with Midjourney AI.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Comments
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
