In a report published Wednesday, Bank of America analyst Steve Byrne reiterated an Underperform rating on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals BCRX, and raised the price target from $8.00 to $9.00.
In the report, Bank of America noted, “As we had expected, BCRX announced positive proof of concept data for its oral kallikrein inhibitor, ‘4161 in HAE prophylaxis. HAE attack rate/week was reduced by 35% (0.82 vs. pbo of 1.27, p<0.001), which fell short of Cinryze's 52% reduction in ph 3 (12 wk study) but we note differences in study design and duration (four weeks for BCRX). While compliance was 98% with four oral pills taken 3x/day, we believe the clinical trial setting and short four week duration allowed for higher compliance than likely seen in a real world setting. We raised our prob. of both US and ex-US approvals to 50% (from 35%), but lowered our peak WW patient estimates from 1750 to 1500 based on our view that ‘4161's efficacy is modest, could trend lower with lower compliance, and has significant patient-to-patient variability (below). These changes raised our PO to $9 (from $8). We continue to see potential for significant upside if one of BCRX' next generation one pill once/day candidates shows better bioavailability. BCRX plans to commence the OPuS-2 phase 2b trial later in 2014.”
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals closed on Tuesday at $9.99.
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