In a note published Monday morning, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas downgraded shares of Ford Motor Company F from Overweight to Underweight and lowered the price target from $17 to $16.
Jonas wrote, "Given what we see are compounding risks to N. American industry profitability, we recommend investors reduce exposure to US OEMs who occupy the riskiest of all automotive verticals, bearing the brunt of competitive pressure as the cycle reaches full maturity."
In addition to cyclical downturns, Jonas sees to much value being place on the F-150. He is sure to point out it's not that he doesn't see the 2015 F-150 as being the "most capable" offering from the Big Three, but it's that he sees risk in the Street's expectations for the truck given an inevitable response from competitors, such as Chevrolet and Dodge.
Looking ahead, Jonas is estimating an EPS for 2015 and 2016 of $1.75 and $1.88, which are nine and 14 percent below consensus expectations, respectively.
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