UPDATE: Longbow Research Downgrades Deere & Company; Announces Price Target

In Monday's morning summary, Longbow Research analyst Eli Lustgarten downgraded Deere & Company DE from Neutral to Underperform and announced a price target of $80. Included in the investment thesis was, "While we expected 1HF2014 to hold up based on 2013 orders and farm income, demand has clearly begun to deteriorate leading to likely more significant weakness both in North America and globally in F2H14 and F2015 than expected." Lustgarten began by noting that the WASDE expectations for corn, wheat, and soybeans in 2014/2015 include general trend of healthy crops and continued price declines. The WASDE initial price per bushel for 2014/2015 wheat, corn, and soybeans are $6.65-$7.95, $3.85-$4.55, and $9.75-$11.75 respectively. Lustgarten noted the midpoint for each of these is lower than its current 2013/2014 counterpart. Lustgarten provided the following U.S. data for each crop. Wheat

• USDA initial 2014/2015 forecast calls for 10 percent Y/Y decrease in suppy
• Production is forecast to decline 8 percent
• projected 11 percent drop in use Corn
  • Modest increase in production for 2014/2015
  • 2 percent decline in demand for 2014/2015
  Soybeans
  • Projected record output level for 2014/2015 of 3.635 B bushels