Morgan Stanley Wonders Who Benefits Most If Sears Holdings Falls

According to Simeon Gutman of Morgan Stanley, if

were to “go away,”

,

and

stand to benefit the most while

and

Old Navy brand will benefit to a lesser degree. According to Gutman, Home Depot and Lowe's could see a two percent to three percent comp lift while Best Buy could see a four percent to five percent comp list over a few years. On the other hand, given Sears's 2.1 percent apparel market share, benefits to apparel competitors will likely be small. The analyst also notes that J.C. Penney and

have the greatest real estate overlap and that if Sears customers could afford to shop at Macy's, they would have already been doing so. “The caveat to this analysis is if Sears decides to sub-lease store locations to another apparel retailer (mot likely Primark),” Gutman argued. “In this case, we see Sears potential demise as a net negative to the overall apparel market given Primark's competitive positioning.” The analyst concludes by stating that the timing and magnitude of possible benefits could differ based on the actual outcome if Sears files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, subleases stores to other retailers or simply closes stores more aggressively en route to a liquidation.