MLP Selloff Could Be An Opportunity, Jefferies Analyst Says

According to a new report by Jefferies analyst Christopher Sighinolfi, master limited partnership (MLP) investors shouldn’t be fretting over the recent slump in prices. In the report, Sighinolfi discusses Jefferies' latest commodity price projections and names the firm's top MLP picks.

Commodity prices
Despite the lingering global oil oversupply conditions, crude oil prices have rallied more than 40 percent since January lows. In response, Jefferies recently raised its WTI crude price forecast for Q2, Q3 and Q4 2015 to $60, $54 and $58 per barrel, respectively.

In addition, Jefferies is lowering its outlook for NGL prices slightly and is now projecting $0.49/gal for 2015, $0.59/gal for 2016, $0.71/gal for 2017 and $0.78/gal for 2018.

When it comes to natural gas, Jefferies' latest projections through 2018 are $2.90/MMBtu for 2015, $3.25/MMBtu for 2016, $3.50/MMBtu for 2017 and $3.50/MMBtu for 2018.

Puzzling propane
Propane’s “violent” price movement so far in 2015 has been surprising to Jefferies analysts because the supply and demand conditions for propane are mostly in-line with prior expectations.

“We continue to expect a combination of 1) higher y/y petchem demand, 2) ~125 MBbld of new PDH capacity, 3)~360 MBbld of new LPG export capacity, 4) crop drying, and 5) winter heating load to tighten inventories and strengthen prices in 2H,” Sighinolfi explains.

Jefferies is projecting that propane will reach a price of $0.60/gal by the end of the year.

MLP picks
Following the recent pull-back, Jefferies names Enterprise Products Partners LP EPD and Sunoco Logistics Partners LP SXL as its top two MLP picks. Jefferies names Williams Companies Inc WMB and Plains GP Holdings LP PAGP as its top two C-corp picks.