Apple's Latest China Problem: Market Share

As if Apple Inc. AAPL didn’t already have enough to worry about in China, Morgan Stanley analyst Bill Lu believes that smartphone manufacturers are aggressively taking advantage of the remaining window before the launch of the next iPhone to attempt to gain market share from Apple in China.

In a new report, Lu looks at the potential share loss and what it means for Apple and its competitors.

The Strategy

With Apple’s new iPhone model anticipated to launch in September, competitors are taking advantage of the last few weeks prior to the launch to bleed Apple of its market share in China. According to the report, OEMs Huawei, Meizu and Xiaomi have all announced new models within the last two months.

Is It Working?

The report includes the most recent market share data (based on page views) for the month of July.

The numbers show that the competitors’ strategy may be working to a certain extent, as Apple share dropped by about 0.2 percent during the month, while share of rivals Xiaomi, Meizu and Huawei all climbed in July.

Apple’s 12.7 percent share is currently good for third place in China, behind Muawei’s 16.5 percent share and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd SSNLF’s 15.5 percent share.

Outlook

Chinese smartphone shipments for July came in at 39.9 million units, an 18 percent monthly increase and a 10 percent yearly increase.

“While we now only expect low-single-digit sequential growth for China’s smartphone market in 3Q15/4Q15 after the forecast cut in mid-August, the sustainability of Chinese OEMs and components remains to be seen,” Lu explains.