A Look At Tesla's Rough Week

  • Shares of Tesla Motors Inc TSLA began the week trading near $250 per share.
  • The stock has lost 10 percent over the past five days following notable downgrades by Wall Street analysts.
  • Analysts were mostly concerned with Tesla's new
Shares of Tesla began the week near $250 but have lost more than 10 percent as the stock traded below the $220 per share mark on Friday. Over the same time period, the Nasdaq ETF, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) QQQ gained nearly 2.5 percent. Other notable tech names including Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN and Apple Inc. AAPL gained just over one percent. Meanwhile, shares of Netflix, Inc. NFLX rose nearly eight percent this week. The last time shares of Tesla traded below $220 was on August 24 – but the stock quickly rallied above $260 per share. Prior to that, shares of Tesla last traded below $220 per share in April en route to climbing to an all-time high of $286.65 in July. Investors were clearly reacting to the analysis coming from Wall Street analysts who were not enthusiastic following the much anticipated Model X launch and the company's near-term outlook. Ben Kallo of Baird downgraded shares of Tesla to Neutral with a price target slashed to $282 from a previous $335. While the analyst acknowledged that the Model X launch marked an "important milestone," he suggested that ramping production will be slower than expected given the "complexity of the vehicle." Kallo added that a slower than expected ramp could impact Tesla's vehicle delivery guidance – a key data point that attracts or deters investors. Without a favorable delivery guidance, the analyst suggested that there will be no other catalysts that can boost the stock until the company introduces a Model 3 prototype possibly next March. Kallo's downgrade was perhaps overshadowed by a more bearish report by Brian Johnson of Barclays who revised his rating to Underweight from Equal-Weight with a price target lowered to $180 from a previous $190. Similarly, Johnson argued that "crossing the chasm" will be more difficult than it appears for the company. Johnson argued that since shares of Tesla failed to rally heading into the Model X launch, the stock is lacking a "story-driven" event to support shares. In fact, the analyst is expecting the company's margins to fall below consensus estimates given a slow production ramp and engineering difficulties. Johnson also questioned if the slow ramp of the Model X will affect the Model 3 launching on time. Finally, one of Tesla's "permabull" analyst also revised his estimates lower. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating on the stock but cut his price target to $450 from a previous $465. The analyst is expecting the company to deliver less than 20,000 Model X units in 2016, unless cheaper versions are introduced. In fact, even if the company where to lower the Model X price tag over time through lower-spec models, it may still prove to be too expensive of a vehicle which may result in a lower than expected demand. Jonas also suggested that the higher than expected Model X prices should force the company explore "new business models of mobility that address sustainable transport that more efficiently apply its EV technology."
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