Global Fossil Fuel Electricity Demand Will Peak In 2025

In at least one segment of global energy demand, fossil fuel demand growth could peak by 2025. Tom Randall reports that Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects fossil fuel demand for electricity will finally hit its peak in another nine years.

“You can’t fight the future,” the report’s lead author Seb Henbest said of renewable energy. “The economics are increasingly locked in.”

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For years, natural gas investors have been betting on the fuel serving as a “bridge” between coal and renewable energy, but plummeting alternative energy prices have kept the natural gas era at bay.

The fall in solar prices has been remarkably consistent ever since the late 1970’s: The price falls by 26 percent every time the world’s capacity doubles. The price of wind power falls 19 percent for every doubling.

While the Bloomberg report may seem like bad news for oil, coal and natural gas investors is only a decade away, it’s important to remember just how dominant of a position fossil fuels hold in the big picture of global energy.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts only about 10 percent of primary energy consumption will come from renewable energy sources by 2040. By comparison, petroleum and other liquids will have a 33 percent share, coal will have an 18 percent share and natural gas will have a 29 percent share in 2040.

So far this year the Guggenheim Solar ETF TAN is down 35.1 percent, the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP UNG is down 9.5 percent, the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) USO is up 6.3 percent and the Market Vectors-Coal ETF KOL is up 33.9 percent.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.