Citi Sees 26% Upside In TESARO On The Strength Of Trial Data

Shares of TESARO Inc TSRO were trading higher by more than 12 percent early Monday morning after the company reported encouraging results from its niraparib Phase 3 NOVA clinical trial results.

The trial was designed to assess the progression free survival rate among 553 patients suffering from ovarian cancer. The clinical trial managed to successfully achieve its primary endpoint of demonstrating that niraparid treatment significantly prolonged the progression free survival rate.

Citi: Price Target Raised To $125

Robyn Karnauskas of Citi maintains a Buy rating on TESARO's stock with a price target boosted to $125 from a previous $120 on Monday.

Karnauskas noted that TESARO reported as expected clinically meaningful benefits. The company is now expected to complete its NDA (New Drug Application) and MAA (Marketing Authorization Application) submissions for its therapy by the end of 2016.

Related Link: Wedbush Raises Tesaro Price Target From $107 To $139

The analyst commented on the trial results, saying, "At ESMO, the company reported PFS of 20.9 mos (vs. 11.0 mo placebo) in HRD+ somatic BRCA pts. However, given the 12.9 mo. PFS in the total HRD+ pts (vs. 3.8 mo placebo, HR 0.38) and the 9.3 mo PFS (vs.3.9 placebo, HR 0.45) seen in HRD+ wtBRCA patients, we believe that all HRD+ patients are seeing clinically meaningful benefits. We note that 37 percent of patients are still on therapy at 18 months. Our model assumes 100 percent probability and 10 mo duration of therapy for 2ndline."

Furthermore, the analyst added, "In addition to these patients not having other treatment options, we believe that 1) 3.1 months over placebo which increases platinum free interval and gives patients time to resolve platinum related thrombocytopenia, 2) 42 percent risk reduction, and 3) 20 percent patients still on treatment at 18 months indicate clinically meaningful benefit to HRD-ve patients. We update our model with 100 percent probability of success in 2ndline."

At last check, TESARO was up 21.11 percent at $120.21.

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