Blueprint for the Future: In Search of Global Economic Solutions (Part 2 of 2)

II. Peering into the Future

What does the capitalist society of tomorrow look like? In light of the aforementioned analysis from Part 1, it can be difficult trying to gauge what the capitalist system of the future may look like. One might picture the economy being dominated by a handful of financial institutions (perhaps similar to today). Perhaps one corporation would grow to envelope the entire economy by the year 2100. In the alternative, one might hypothesize capitalism devolving to a leaner form (doomsday-style) with slower growth, but greater regard for individual liberties and contractual rights. Given global uncertainty and domestic socio-political and economic issues, it can be difficult precisely formulating a picture of to where we are headed.

Despite all the commentary regarding an imminent doomsday situation for global capitalism, there is reason to believe that what we are witnessing is not (in Nouriel Roubini's terms) the "final day of reckoning" for capitalism. Why? The answer is simple: It appears that there is still substantial room left for the productive forces in global capitalism to develop. Not only in terms of geopolitical developments around the world, but within the US. Given Karl Marx's theory of historical materialism, the transition from capitalism to the next stage would occur first at the spearhead of capitalist development, i.e., the US and Western Europe. That being said, as I have previously written, "the completion of such superstructural transition may not occur for hundreds of years into the future."

Nevertheless, given the respective options for human economy in the future -- whether that be nuclear annihilation, ecological suicide, barbarism, or socialism -- in conjunction with the conatus of human survival, our situation today portends that the transition from capitalism to the next stage will be a slow process. In other words, such a superstructural transition will not occur in a brief period of time. The philosopher Gerald Cohen correctly noted that "if there were an attempt to install socialism on the basis of an incomplete development of the productive forces, then 'all the old filthy business' 'would begin again'." Thus, "premature attempts at [socialist] revolution, whatever their immediate outcome, will eventuate in a restoration of capitalist society". Therefore, for both the left and the right sides of the political debate, capitalism has to run its course on a world-historical level in order to properly make it to the next stage of human development. In this sense, "seventy years is the batting of an eyelid, world-historically speaking." This discussion leads us into an important question: What would the genuinely socialist society of tomorrow look like? And now, we're getting to the real meat of the issue.

The UK's Telegraph had a recent article on the supposed actual identity of the comedian Charlie Chaplin. Aside from the investigation of Chaplin by various government agencies, a portion of the story discussed Chaplin's supposed communist leanings. Interestingly, a comment to the article written allegedly by one named Edmund O'Neill, who claimed to be Chaplin's nephew, stated, "In fact, today's America is more communist than China or Russia ever had. [sic] If you read the 10 precepts of the Communist Manifesto, you will clearly see how communism triumphed on a global scale." Aside from the superficial implications of the comment, if we look at the 10 precepts presented in the Communist Manifesto, Marx and Engels wrote that the 10 "measures will of course be different in different countries. Nevertheless, in the most advanced countries the following [measures] will be pretty generally applicable."

Depending on how one interprets the 10 precepts, arguably (and quite surprisingly), at least six or seven of the policies are in practice in the US today. Some of the most apparent include "a heavy progressive or graduated income tax", the "centralization of credit in the hands of the state", the "centralization of the means of communication and transport in the hands of the state", the "extension of factories and instruments of production owned by the state", "equal liability of all to labor", the "gradual abolition of the distinction between town and country", and "free education for all children in public schools" along with the "abolition of children's factory labor". In addition, other various policies seem to be present though they are commonly understood today by alternative labels, e.g., eminent domain, estate taxes, and inheritance taxes. Arguably, about six or seven of the policies are present in the modern capitalist mixed economy model.

It came as a surprise to me to read the 10 precepts in light of contemporary society, but such thoughts show exactly how far we've come in terms of the development of the capitalist economic system. As for what the future holds in terms of socialism, it is significant to note that most likely, the "socialism" and "communism" of the future as per Marx's historical materialism most likely will look nothing like what most Americans may regard today as socialism and communism.

Marxian commentator Red Wagner in the video blog Marxism Today has said that before finding a "Marxist solution", we need to have a deeper understanding of Marxian concepts including exploitation, underconsumption, estranged labor, and alienation. Wagner: "What would a Marxist economy look like? ... We're not going to get a blueprint [of socialism and communism] from Marx." Wagner: "[Marx] knew that something would come after [capitalism]... And he made some guesses and predictions about what it could be like, and those are very famous pieces...but they're very small compared to the majority of his work, which is just about understanding capitalism." Wagner used the eloquent analogy of Marx's trying to predict what socialism or communism would be like in the future to that of a monk in a monastery in feudalistic times trying to think of what capitalism would be like. Or, in the alternative, an Egyptian slave trying to imagine what life in feudalism would be like. Wagner: "That person could make some predictions, but just really won't know what it's like until we get there... It's just going to be very hard to make those kinds of predictions."

In terms of trying to predict what a post-capitalist society would look like, where Marx did not provide a blueprint, science fiction authors have. Perhaps the most significant exposition in science fiction of Marx's ideas was in George Orwell's "1984". That being said, in taking into account Cohen's analysis of Marxian economics, even the global situation in "1984" with Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia (if left to develop) would most likely involve an eventual (albeit distant) global return (perhaps by way of warfare and/or a downfall of the totalitarian superstates) at some point back toward free market capitalism, i.e., capitalism must run its course in order to progress to socialism. Thus, in this sense, though entertaining from a reader's perspective, "1984" does not necessarily genuinely reflect Marx's theory in practice.

In terms of Marxian socialism per se, though such a comparison may seem outside-the-box and surprising, perhaps a good picture of a socialist economy can be found in the post-apocalyptic science fiction movie "WALL-E" where humanity flees on a spaceship sponsored by an Earth-based corporation. At such a point, the productive forces could not develop any further -- to the point where humans can be serviced by robots all day. On an economic level, the Axiom ship from WALL-E may be considered a picture of a possible socialist economy -- it is interesting to note that in the scene from WALL-E where you see the mechanized way of life on the Axiom ship, many of the passengers are wearing red.

One could contend that the Axiom ship does not represent socialism, but merely rather advanced capitalism, because the Buy n Large Corporation owns everything, and that would be a fair point. However, in the context of the story, that is the course of advanced capitalism: socialism gestates from the womb of capitalism; socialism comes out of capitalism bearing capitalism's birthmarks. The logos of Buy n Large could be seen as representing the birthmarks of capitalism. Thus, Buy n Large no longer exists in a corporate sense by the time of the events in the film WALL-E. At that point, humanity has shed the skin of corporatism and consumerism and a practical form of communistic socialism is the dominant economic superstructure for humanity. Quite humorously, from this perspective, the applicable "revolution" arguably took place when the Buy n Large corporation's spaceship fled the planet Earth. And note that there are no perceived hammer-and-sickles or red stars involved with this process; the words "communism" and "socialism" never came up. Obviously, I am not saying that the Axiom ship is the archetype of a pure socialist economy and I am not saying that a socialist economy would be one where everyone is monotone and alienated from the real world because of technology, but the example from WALL-E in some ways does a good job in reflecting Marx's ideas of capitalism evolving to a point where the productive forces become fettered and a new economic superstructure emerges.

A less cartoonish science fiction example of such a socialist economy would be that of a small colony on Mars or perhaps city life on a Bernal sphere or a Stanford torus. In this context, such an existence would somewhat resemble primitive communism and yet owing to high-tech advancements, the scenario would not be primitive communism. Obviously, in considering life on a Bernal sphere or a Stanford torus floating through space, humanity would have evolved past capitalism by that point; capitalism would no longer serve the economic ends of mankind in such living circumstances. In terms of an actual blueprint for a genuinely socialist society in the future in Marxian terms, phenomena like arcologies, aquaponics, and automated homes of the future come to my mind. These technological developments may find their origin in the advanced capitalist superstructure -- with possible popular introductions in the last stages of advanced capitalism.

If we want to play the role of the monk in the monastery predicting what the next stage of history would be like, socialism and/or communism could very well end up looking like egalitarian communities living in massive arcologies...or other high-tech communities abroad. As genuine socialism comes about, it most likely looks a lot like capitalism. Were we to peer into the future towards a hypothetical futuristic socialist economy at the dawn of the socialist epoch, we might see skyscrapers, helicopters, and mass-transit systems as we do today. This would be like how a late-feudal society might look a bit like an early-capitalist society. Later on, a socialist economy may look completely different with arcologies or other structures...kind of like how our contemporary society looks very different from the 1600s in Great Britain. Just as the monk-in-the-monastery would have probably been unable to see interstate highways, automobiles, and computers, there are, of course, probably other elements to the next epoch that we are missing...but I could see arcologies and aquaponics-like collectives playing a role. The crux goes back to the forces of production and their development.

III. Beyond Politics: Moving On, Moving Forward

I brought up the example of WALL-E above and I also recently discussed Ruth Mantell's analysis regarding the US labor market in terms familiar to Marxian economics. For whatever reason, the specter of Marx remains in the current global financial crisis. Even on Monday's episode of APM's Marketplace, Kai Ryssdal announced the start of a new segment regarding income inequality and the wealth gap in the US. In the same episode of Marketplace, Jon Miller discussed some of the problems with respect to food security in Bangladesh. These recurring themes in the contemporary global economy were discussed by thinkers like Marx and Engels in the 19th century. It's as if we keep on seeing these shadowy references to these Marxian concepts in the contemporary American financial discourse even though hardly anyone recognizes and discusses them.

That being the case, it would appear that despite a lot of the bearish rhetoric nowadays, capitalism still has quite a distance yet to travel. Even if the globe is to face another financial crisis in the coming years, it appears unlikely that even that crisis would herald the final chapter of the historic crisis of capitalism, i.e., the last, great bust of the capitalist cycle. We can say with confidence that capitalism still has a length to travel as it remains uncertain that the capitalist system has reached a point where socialism is feasible. Per Cohen's viewpoint, a transition to socialism would require "sufficiently developed productive forces." In our time period right now, it is debatable whether humanity has reached this point. Capitalism still appears to be necessary on a global level in order to run its course, to complete its "historical task" whereby humanity can rise to a higher level of economy and production.

With this in mind, one might almost want to be quite bullish in the coming years. From this perspective, far from signaling that the stock market will collapse in the coming years, the fact that capitalism still has substantial room to develop on domestic and international levels portends that our current crisis is not the last bust in the capitalist cycle. On the contrary, with or without Marx's perspective and even beyond the realm of politics, the fact that there is room left for the development of productive forces (whereas a transition to socialism for right now appears to be unfeasible) portends that there may be [a] major boom[s] in humanity's future in terms of technological development.

Even aside from technological advancement, on these topics I think back to the Inuit in Greenland and their communalistic traditions: the idea of a human community where individuals' needs are provided for and where "if a hunter kills a seal, it's handed over to whoever needs it" with communal freezers that anyone can access, where war, terrorism, and extreme poverty seem far away, a life that is safe and predictable. If it is true that the Arctic ice cap acts like a giant mirror for the globe, maybe the world can learn something important by taking a look in the mirror.

One way or another, the transition to a post-capitalist global economy would most likely not occur overnight, as previous superstructural transitions also did not occur overnight. And even if politics is the concentrated expression of economics, it would appear that humanity still has some growing up to do. Even if issues with the global marketplace seem to be related to politics, such considerations regarding the future course of human economy seem to go beyond politics. I hope this discussion sheds light on how long-term perspectives are key for human macroeconomics; further, with such thoughts in mind, I believe there is sufficient reason to be optimistic going forward; there is yet reason to have hope -- with or without capitalism, with or without the marketplace. Viewing the stock market from this macro-historical perspective and casting the current global financial crisis and any potential crises to come in the near future in these terms can help give us insight as to where we are today...and where we appear to be headed in the future.