BofA Securities analyst Justin Post noted Thursday that President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, keeping the 10% baseline in place. Per Trump, the pause comes after 75-plus countries called U.S. officials to negotiate trade agreements, even as he hiked tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% in response to China's 84% rate on U.S. goods.
The Nasdaq jumped over 12% as investors recalibrated tariff and recession fears. Talks are underway with key Asian partners like Vietnam (tariff at 46%), Japan (24%) and India (26%), with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to meet them soon, per Bloomberg. While China tariffs remain a risk, broader negotiations could help online retailers stabilize supply chains.
Also Read: Amazon Faces Tariff Turbulence But Analyst Sees Favorable Trends
Amazon’s retail does have significant exposure to China (China sellers could be over 30% of third-party sellers), but pauses on tariffs in other countries will allow for product substitution. Key questions for first-quarter earnings and second-quarter outlooks will be to what degree consumers have pulled forward spending ahead of expected tariffs, and how much of a pass Street will give companies on second-quarter guidance.
As advertising spending is cyclical and depends, in part, on business confidence, Post expects some weakness in second-quarter brand advertising.
Post noted that the announced tariff pause could help soften the potential impact in the second quarter and drive some upside to his recently revised estimates, benefiting the entire sector.
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