Summer Crypto Relief Rally Finally Here? Trader Sees Bitcoin At $30,000, Ethereum At $2,400

Major coins rose sharply after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting concluded on Wednesday. The global cryptocurrency market cap rose 8% to $1.05 trillion at press time.

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Why It Matters: Bitcoin and Ethereum rose nearly 8% and 14% intraday after the Fed announced a 75 basis points interest rate hike. 

At the end of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a dovish stance on future rate hikes, reported CNBC.

“As the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation,” according to CNBC.

Powell addressed whether the U.S. economy was in a recession and said while the growth was negative in the first quarter, it is expected to be marginally positive in the second quarter.

Edward Moya, a senior market analyst with OANDA noted that Powell did not rule out another 75-bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting but did say that it would be appropriate to slow rate increases at some point. 

“A clear greenlight to buy up risky assets won’t happen until we see evidence inflation is coming down. Inflation risks will remain elevated as energy shortages are likely, supply chain issues won’t ease given a weakening global outlook, and as pandemic-related issues remain troubling,” said Moya.

On cryptocurrencies, Moya said, “The FOMC decision provided optimism that the end of tightening is in sight and that triggered a nice rally for risky assets that helped elevate cryptos.”  

“Given the outperformance by the tech stocks, it should not come as a surprise that crypto has been stabilizing. The crypto trade could be evolving here as a peak in yields seems like it is in place.”

Cryptocurrencies continue to track risk-on assets such as stocks. On Wednesday, The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices shot up 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively, after the rate hike announcement.

Nick Heale, head of corporate advisory at U.K.-based digital asset trading firm GlobalBlock, said Bitcoin tracking risk assets such as tech stocks should not necessarily be the case, adding that it is difficult to predict when the correlation would end.

Heale said, “It will be a delicate decision to predict when this reversal [decline in BTC prices] may kick in, perhaps the end of 2022 to early 2023 or sooner?  The complex mix of economic factors will make market timing of any reversal or indeed decoupling from wider risk asset performance a difficult call for investors!”

Michaël van de Poppe posted the three ideal ingredients for a “summer relief rally” on Twitter. 

The cryptocurrency trader sees Ethereum at $2,400 and Bitcoin between $28,000 to $30,000 levels.

Ideal ingredients for a Summer Relief Rally are there:

� Powell becoming dovish on policy and more data-dependent.
� $ETH merge coming up in September.
� Heavy impact on 3AC, Celsius, and more already priced in.

I'm seeing $ETH to $2,400 and $BTC to $28,000-30,000.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 27, 2022

Meanwhile, on-chain data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin has broken above the realized price — a reference to the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were purchased divided by the number of BTC in circulation. 

#Bitcoin has just broken back above the Realized Price, which is currently trading at $21,800.

This represents the average price of the $BTC coin supply, valued at the time it last moved on-chain.

Live Chart: https://t.co/US6j4k5h4C pic.twitter.com/0LbXAdtNTz

— glassnode (@glassnode) July 27, 2022

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