A Rare Holiday Spending Boom Is Coming—But Only For The Wealthy

This year's holiday season may deliver the strongest sales growth in four years, but it won't be a broad recovery—wealthy households are expected to drive nearly all of the gains.

According to Oxford Economics, holiday retail sales—excluding autos, gas, bars and restaurants—are expected to rise 4.6% in nominal terms and 1.6% in inflation-adjusted volume over the 2024 season. The last time real sales volume saw a comparable increase was in 2021.

"We expect this holiday shopping season to be the strongest in four years, but it will be disproportionately driven by older, wealthier households," Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note this week.

Spending Power Concentrated At The Top

Wealthier Americans—especially those in the top 20% of income earners—are disproportionately driving this year's holiday rebound.

As of the second quarter of 2025, households' equity holdings were 2.5 times their incomes, an all-time high, and now surpass real estate as the dominant component of household net worth.

That's crucial because the recent stock market surge has translated directly into higher discretionary spending.

“Stock market wealth is much higher than it was at previous peaks, such as during the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis, or the onset of the pandemic,” Pearce said.

K-Shaped Economy Widens

While affluent households keep spending, lower-income consumers are struggling. Real disposable income is projected to grow just 1.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 2.4% last year. Tariffs have added 0.4% to inflation, and prices for electronics, furniture, and recreational goods are up as much as 5%.

At the same time, credit card lending is tightening, and many lower-income households are maxed out, limiting their ability to borrow for holiday purchases.

Oxford notes that online sales will lead, rising 8.7% year-over-year, while in-store sales will lag at 3%. Consumers also started holiday shopping earlier this year, partly to avoid tariff-driven price hikes and capture early promotions.

Tariffs Shift Timing, But Not Volume

One wildcard this year is the impact of tariffs on shopping behavior.

Online search trends for "Christmas shopping" spiked earlier than usual, which Oxford Economics said could signal some front-loading of purchases into October.

“Consumers began gift searches early this year to preempt tariff impacts, reinforcing the trend of spending throughout the holiday season due to early promotions and extended discount periods,” Oxford Economics wrote.

10 Stocks To Watch As Wealthy Shoppers Spend

If the holiday season unfolds as Oxford predicts, the following stocks—each catering to affluent demographics or luxury markets—may be positioned to benefit:

American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP)
High-income consumers lean on Amex for premium travel and luxury purchases. AXP sees spending volume rise alongside stock market gains and travel rebounds.

Market Cap: $224.85B
YTD Return: +10.04%
Forward P/E: 20.2x
Median Price Target: $342.00
Last Price: $323.12
Upside: +5.8%

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU)
Affluent millennials and Gen X continue to spend on premium activewear. Lululemon remains a strong play on both wellness trends and gift giving.

Market Cap: $19.52B
YTD Return: –56.95%
Forward P/E: 13.5x
Median Price Target: $185.00
Last Price: $164.62
Upside: +12.4%

Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL)
Classic luxury apparel brand with strong resonance among older, high-income shoppers, especially during the holiday gifting season.

Market Cap: $19.58B
YTD Return: +41.32%
Forward P/E: 21.3x
Median Price Target: $351.00
Last Price: $323.16
Upside: +8.6%

Tapestry Inc. (NYSE:TPR)
Owner of Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman—brands with loyal upscale customer bases. Attractive pricing and luxury-lite positioning may draw in deal-conscious but brand-oriented consumers.

Market Cap: $24.12B
YTD Return: +80.59%
Forward P/E: 21.3x
Median Price Target: $120.00
Last Price: $116.51
Upside: +3.0%

PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH)
Operates Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. Premium apparel that still commands brand equity among fashion-forward, wealthier consumers.

Market Cap: $3.93B
YTD Return: –22.61%
Forward P/E: 7.2x
Median Price Target: $95.00
Last Price: $81.72
Upside: +16.3%

V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC)
Parent company of The North Face and Vans. While Vans is youth-driven, The North Face appeals to upper-income households shopping for outdoor gear during the holidays.

Market Cap: $5.54B
YTD Return: –32.80%
Forward P/E: 18.0x
Median Price Target: $14.40
Last Price: $14.17
Upside: +1.6%

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL)
Upscale cruise travel continues to rebound among older, wealthy travelers—those most likely to gift or plan vacations around the holidays.

Market Cap: $81.08B
YTD Return: +30.62%
Forward P/E: 17.8x
Median Price Target: $362.00
Last Price: $298.51
Upside: +21.3%

Marriott International Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR)
With premium properties and loyalty programs, Marriott stands to benefit from continued high-end leisure and business travel.

Market Cap: $70.32B
YTD Return: –6.45%
Forward P/E: 24.6x
Median Price Target: $284.50
Last Price: $259.04
Upside: +9.8%

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT)
Another key player in luxury and upscale travel. Expect bookings and gift card sales to reflect affluent consumer activity.

Market Cap: $60.56B
YTD Return: +4.35%
Forward P/E: 30.7x
Median Price Target: $279.00
Last Price: $257.47
Upside: +8.4%

Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE:WSM)
Luxury home goods and kitchenware retailer. High-income households often spend more on gifting high-quality home products—especially during the holiday season.

Market Cap: $22.84B
YTD Return: +2.79%
Forward P/E: 21.5x
Median Price Target: $210.00
Last Price: $187.50
Upside: +12.0%