Charles Plosser: More Optimistic Than Not

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser was just on CNBC with Steve Liesman and he discussed monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy. He was asked about the recent dissent with two others on the recent policy actions that the Federal reserve took at its August 9 meeting. Plosser said he dissented because the Fed's description of the economy was overly pessimistic and was not as optimistic as it might have been. The language about keeping rates low until mid 2013 was pretty pessimistic and will be for some time to come. Plosser said the data did not justify the language change at this point, and that it was not the right time to make a policy decision. He feels the Fed is overreacting to events, and would prefer to sit tight for a bit longer. Plosser noted that everybody marked down 2011 forecasts, and he did too. He did say that his personal 2012 forecast has not changed. He never believed the economy would grow like gangbusters, that it would be a weak recovery. Liesman asked if there was an additional role for Fed policy. Plosser replied by saying that Fed policy has been extraordinarily accommodating for three years. If the situation were to become like 2008, the Fed would help. Plosser said that deflation nor financial meltdown is in his forecast, but the Fed would aide if it entered. He believes it is a mistake to keep rates low until 2013, because a lot can change in two years, just look at the last two years. Plosser does not think additional quantitative easing would be beneficial at this point, and the Federal Reserve needs to be careful about inflation. Europe is causing a lot of uncertainty around the globe and in the U.S., and it has a detrimental impact on the economy. People are frozen and they do not know what to do. U.S. banks are not highly exposed to European risk, having cut their level of risk over the past two years. The Federal Reserve will continue to support dollar funding issues with the European Central Bank and other countries, but the Federal Reserve alone can not solve the problems in Europe. He said that inflation is at a pretty good place, with headline inflation expected to come down, as oil prices and other commodities have fallen. Despite this, monetary policy is not free, and it has costs and benefits. Liesman asked about the jobs problem in this country, and Plosser said it is going to be a "long, slow sloth." "We over-invested in housing, and the financial sector. Both of those sectors are shrinking, and it will take a long time to fix," Plosser said. ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that Plosser is signaling no more quantitative easing might want to consider the following trades:

• This would be bullish for the economy, if he believes we do not need additional QE. This could be bullish for banks, like J.P. Morgan JPM, as the economy is healthier than most suspect.

Bearish:
Traders who believe that more "QE" is necessary may consider an alternate positions:

• This is bearish for the U.S. economy, as it signals it is not able to stand on its own. It is good for stocks, but bad for the U.S. dollar.

• Consider looking at the sectors that worked during the past two QE's. Names like Potash POT, BHP Billiton BHP, Apple AAPL and the names that worked previously should continue to work.
  
  

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