With the S&P 500 suffering through its worst day since December, today is probably an ideal time for traders to peruse their portfolios for those positions that are showing signs of more downside yet to come. Especially when considering this rocky start to March is not a good sign because March historically starts well and ends poorly.
Not to rain on anyone's parade, but if Monday and Tuesday are any indication, this could be a nasty month. If there's any good news it's that there's still time to take profits in some ETFs that are now showing signs of breaking down. Either take profits or keep losses small, wait for the pullback to complete, reassess and buy back some old positions or initiate new ones. Rinse, wash, repeat.
With that, here are five ETFs to get you started that look like their in obvious technical danger.
Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF BRF
Things had been going along quite nicely for the Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF in 2012, but the situation has changed quickly in recent days. Monday brought the double-whammy of disappointing Brazilian inflation data and lower-than-expected Chinese GDP growth estimates. Those are fundamental reasons to avoid BRF in the near-term.
On the charts, BRF was rebuffed at $47, its RSI and stochastics have viciously corrected in just a couple of days and the ETF could fall to the low $40s before finding support. That might be a good point to load up on BRF, which still has a compelling story to it.
Technology Select Sector SPDR XLK
The Technology Select Sector SPDR isn't in near the technical danger that BRF is in, but that's also an apples-to-oranges comparison. Look, we all know that as long as Apple AAPL continues its run to $600 and beyond, ETFs like XLK are fine places to be. Problem is even Apple cannot accomplish that in straight line fashion and the stock is showing some near-term weakness.
That means XLK and its 17.7% allocation to Apple are going to show weakness. XLK's RSI and stochastics have just started to wilt and the 20-day moving average could be taken out today.
Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE
The Energy Select Sector SPDR is another example of fundamental issues begetting technical doldrums. Oil prices are high and look destined to remain that way for the foreseeable future. Problem for XLE is that almost a third of the ETF's weight is allocated to Exxon Mobil XOM and Chevron CVX and those stocks aren't as sensitive to oil's short-term upside movements as many investors would like to believe.
Now XLE needs to hold its 50-day line and horizontal support around $72 or risk a moderate pullback to its 200-day line just below $70.
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ
To be honest, GDXJ has probably already broken down and it has been flashing signs that it would for a couple of weeks now. Even in favorable environment in February, the ETF just couldn't crack the $30-$31 area. Today, it's down 4.4% on strong volume. Trading around $25.50, GDXJ could easily fall to $22 if this broader market pullback deepens.
ETFS Physical Platinum Shares PPLT
The near-term outlook for the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares changed at heart-stopping speed. This ETF still looked like it was in pretty good shape last week, but macro concerns have a way of plaguing metals that have an industrial component to them. PPLT struggled with some resistance around $170, faltered, gave up support at $165 and looks like it has downside to $155. Chart indicators show there is at least an average chance PPLT is in for more near-term weakness.
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