JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Price, Quote, News & History | Benzinga

The Federal Reserve announces its September rate decision today at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. A quarter-point rate hike is largely priced in, with Polymarket traders assigning an 89 percent probability to a 25-basis-point increase and just 11 percent to no change, on roughly $193 million in trading volume. But according to JPMorgan, the hike itself is not what will drive stocks. The bank told clients the S&P 500 could swing anywhere from 1 percent higher to 2 percent lower depending entirely on how Warsh frames the decision. JPMorgan mapped five scenarios. A surprise hold could send the S&P down 1.25 to 1.75 percent, as investors question the Fed's willingness to contain inflation and long-term Treasury yields push higher. A 25-basis-point hike with little forward guidance could lift the index 0.25 to 0.75 percent. The most bullish setup is a hike accompanied by a signal that the Fed is simply unwinding the 75 basis points of easing delivered in 2025, which JPMorgan sees sending the S&P up 0.5 to 1 percent. If Warsh signals higher-for-longer beyond current expectations, stocks could fall 0.25 to 1 percent. In the most bearish case, Warsh telegraphs that rates need to rise materially further to bring inflation under control, and JPMorgan sees a 1 to 2 percent S&P decline. The stakes are elevated with the 10-year Treasury yield trading around 5 percent, its highest level since 2023. Investors will also be watching whether policymakers project another hike this year in the updated Summary of Economic Projections, and whether Warsh presents today's move as a limited adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle. The S&P 500 is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. Sources: Benzinga, CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, Polymarket, and the Federal Reserve. Video contains content from: @federalreserve. $SPY. $JPM. #Fed #FOMC #StockMarket 🌐 Find more market-moving insights at https://www.benzinga.com — your one-stop destination for the latest financial news, data, and expert analysis to stay ahead of the markets. 🖥️ Want the same tools the pros use—without the $10K Bloomberg terminal? Benzinga Edge gives you real-time portfolio alerts, weekly stock picks, and pro-grade research in one command center. 👉 https://bit.ly/4unSKiB ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 📲 Follow us on socials @benzinga 🔔 Subscribe To The Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Benzinga ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ⚠️ Disclaimer: Investing in financial markets carries risk, and there are no guaranteed returns. All information is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always do your own research and speak with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Only invest what you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.