*Please note; The author is working from UTC +13 when determining the timeline of data releases.

Data emanating from the UK will take up Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday headlines, with three important events set to influence the direction of the Great British Pound.

However, the BoE, among other commentators, has recently noted the resilience of the UK job market. Accordingly, Plan B, and any of its negative side-effects, may only end up a footnote in the BoE’s final decision.

Forecasts suggest a significant lift in the UK Inflation Rate could be reported Wednesday night. TradingEconomics is forecasting a lift to 5.0% from 4.2% for the UK’s November YoY figure.

However, a higher than expected inflation rate may not lead to any market turmoil in the GBP. Case in point, leading up to the last BoE Interest Rate Decision, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) were already predicting that inflation would exceed 5% in 2022. Yet, the MPC voted to delay raising its benchmark rate. This kind of hesitation, on behalf of the BoE, hints that the headline value is a secondary consideration for its Interest Rate Decision.

To cap off all the UK data is the BoE’s Interest Rate decision, released at 1:00 am New Zealand time, so bear in mind your own local time for this major event.

As it stands, investors are giving an interest rate hike a 50/50 chance, down from a 70/30 chance in favour of a hike at the beginning of the month.