Rivian Analyst Downgrades Stock With 'Triple Whammy' Of Policy Risk: 'No Catalysts In 2025'

A Rivian Automotive RIVN analyst downgraded the stock with short-term pressure for the company and the electric vehicle sector.

The Rivian Analyst: Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter downgraded Rivian from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $19 to $13.

The Analyst Takeaways: Rivian has a favorable outlook in the coming years, but faces a short-term outlook that won't get investors excited, Potter said in a new investor note.

Potter said Rivian has "no catalysts in 2025."

"We struggle to identify upside catalysts in 2025. In 2026, investors can look forward to the R2 launch and (maybe) JV customer wins," Potter said.

The analyst said the lower-priced R2 and R3 are "critical to the thesis" for Rivian stock and the R2 doesn't launch until 2026.

While Rivian gets downgraded, Potter noted the stock is Piper's favorite Neutral-rated stock in the sector.

"We like Rivian's strategy, particularly self-reliance in electronics and software."

The analyst also highlighted Rivian's joint venture with Volkswagen VWAGY as a way for the company to de-risk its balance sheet and validate its strategy."

Potter said along with Rivian having no catalysts in 2025, the company faces a potential "triple-whammy" of policy risk that could happen in 2025 or beyond.

There are three policy risks to consider: the Trump administration could pull Rivian’s Department of Energy loan funding; the $7,500 EV tax credit could be canceled; and CARB (California Air Resources Board) could lose the ability to regulate emissions, which could hurt credit revenue.

Potter estimates Rivian will deliver 47,654 vehicles in 2025, down from 51,578 in 2024. Here are the analyst's current delivery estimates for Rivian through 2030:

2025: 47,654 units
2026: 102,062 units
2027: 209,727 units
2028: 330,883 units
2029: 465,095 units
2030: 590,192 units

RIVN Price Action: Rivian stock is down 3.5% to $10.96 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $8.26 to $18.86. Rivian stock is down 17% year-to-date in 2025.

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