J.P. Morgan Adjusts Allstate Estimates

J.P. Morgan is adjusting down its 2Q and FY 2011 EPS estimates for Allstate ALL by $1.53 and $1.53 to a per share loss of $0.51 and EPS of $2.15, respectively, “to reflect the significant weather losses that affected the US in the month of April.” “The company recently preannounced total pretax losses of approximately $1.4 billion,” J.P. Morgan writes. “Our estimate reduction reflects our estimate of these losses, partially offset by a one-third reduction to our previous catastrophe load. “For comparison, the company's estimate is 90% higher than what one would estimate by simply multiplying the industry loss (which PCS estimates to be almost $10 billion) by the company's personal and commercial market shares in the affected states.” Allstate closed Monday at $32.52.