Moderna Analyst Breaks Down Biopharma's Coronavirus Vaccine Pricing

Amid chatter that Moderna's Inc MRNA investigational coronavirus vaccine is pricier relative to rivals, the company offered some clarity on pricing on its earnings call.

An analyst at Chardan detailed COVID-19 vaccine pricing dynamics in a Thursday note. 

The Moderna Analyst: Gbola Amusa has a Buy rating on Moderna with a $95 price target. 

The Moderna Thesis: Moderna presented an analysis implying a value of $300/course of the vaccine for adult populations, Amusa said in the note. (See his track record here)

That said, the company said it would settle for a price well below the value given the pandemic and urgent need, the analyst said.

The smaller volume contracts were executed at $32-$37/dose, according to Moderna, he said. 

The company said it anticipated lower per-dose pricing in higher-volume agreements that are being negotiated now, Amusa said.

"We believe the plan would place Moderna towards the top end among other recently-announced government agreements," the analyst said. 

Based on agreements reached between other vaccine developers and the U.S. government, the per-dose pricing works out as follows: 

• Johnson & Johnson JNJ: $10
• Pfizer Inc. PFE/BioNTech SE – ADR BNTX: $19.50
• GlaxoSmithKline plc GSK/Sanofi SA SNY: $21
• AstraZeneca plc AZN/Oxford University: $12
• Novavax, Inc. NVAX: $16

Most of the above contracts include options to buy additional doses, Amusa said. 

"We believe it might be challenging for Moderna to negotiate higher pricing relative to other players given what have thus far been (to us) overall similar clinical and preclinical profiles." 

The analyst sees a high likelihood of mid-teens per-dose pricing for large-volume contracts.

When COVID-19 transitions from being a pandemic to endemic, there is greater uncertainty regarding the commercial potential for Moderna's vaccine due to more competition from present-day vaccine developers and second-generation entrants as well as reduced demand, he said. 

Future competitive dynamics will make the market more sensitive to pricing and nuanced differences in safety and efficacy profiles than in the current environment, Amusa said. 

The analyst did not rule out the possibility of the market supporting higher pricing than the rate Chardan expects for the near term, as Amusa said customers are likely to extend beyond government agencies.

MRNA Price Action: At last check, Moderna shares were slipping 2.73% to $74.

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