Rivian Q1 Earnings Preview: All Eyes On R2 Launch, Analyst Says 'No Catalysts In 2025'

Rivian Automotive RIVN will likely focus on the future launch of its R2 vehicle when presenting first-quarter financial results after market close Tuesday.

Here are the earnings and revenue estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Rivian to report first-quarter revenue of $1.0 billion, down from $1.2 billion in last year's first quarter according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Rivian beat the analyst estimate for revenue in the fourth quarter and has beaten analyst estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters.

Analysts expect Rivian to report a first-quarter loss of 76 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of $1.24 in last year's first quarter.

Rivian beat the analyst estimate for earnings per share in the fourth quarter and has beaten analyst estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters.

What Analysts Are Saying: Analysts have been lowering the price target on Rivian stock ahead of first-quarter financial results.

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $19 to $13.

The analyst said Rivian’s outlook in the coming years is favorable, but it faces a short-term outlook that won't excite investors and several potential negative headwinds.

Potter said Rivian has “no catalysts in 2025.”

“We struggle to identify upside catalysts in 2025. In 2026, investors can look forward to the R2 launch and (maybe) JV customer wins,” Potter said.

The analyst said the lower-priced R2 launch is vital to Rivian stock, but doesn't launch until 2026.

While Rivian gets downgraded, Potter noted the stock is Piper’s favorite Neutral-rated stock in the sector.

“We like Rivian’s strategy, particularly self-reliance in electronics and software.”

Potter said along with Rivian having no catalysts in 2025, the company faces a potential “triple-whammy” of policy risk that could happen in 2025 or beyond.

There are three policy risks to consider: the Trump administration could pull Rivian's Department of Energy loan funding; the $7,500 EV tax credit could be canceled; and CARB (California Air Resources Board) could lose the ability to regulate emissions, which could hurt credit revenue.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Rivian and their price targets:

JPMorgan: Maintained Underweight rating, lowered price target from $11 to $10
Baird: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $16 to $14
Goldman Sachs: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $14 to $12
UBS: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $14 to $12
Mizuho: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $11 to $10

Key Items to Watch: Analysts could ask questions about Rivian’s recent addition to the board of directors. The appointment of Coherent Corp co-founder and CEO Aidan Gomez as a board member could signal a larger focus on AI.

Investors and analysts could be looking for more commentary on Rivian's technology and AI, which could be underappreciated given its current lower vehicle production than other competitors.

Rivian previously announced 8,640 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter, which was down 36.4% year-over-year. The company has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 delivery guidance of a range of 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles.

Analysts and investors will want to see this guidance maintained and would also love more color on an early look at 2026 delivery estimates with the R2 scheduled for deliveries in the first half of 2026.

Rivian previously announced it was opening up its delivery van orders to customers outside of early investor and partner Amazon.com Inc. The company recently announced it has signed a deal with meal kit company HelloFresh for 70 Rivian vans to be added to its commercial vehicle fleet.

The electric vehicle company will likely be asked to comment on the impact tariffs and the new White House administration could have on upcoming production and deliveries. Rivian produces the majority of its vehicles in the United States, but it could be impacted by the end of tax credits for electric vehicles.

In recent interviews, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe has shown confidence in the R2 launch and called for the EV sector to have more vehicles under the $50,000 price point. The R2 is expected to have a starting price of around $45,000.

Scaringe will likely share his belief that this vehicle launch is critical for Rivian's financial future and for the EV sector at large.

RIVN Price Action: Rivian stock is down 1.9% to $13.56 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $9.25 to $18.86. Rivian stock is up 2.8% year-to-date in 2025 and up 31.8% over the last year.

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