Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock soared 1,350% following its 2018 incentive plan for Elon Musk—and Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney says the company’s newly announced package for the CEO is giving investor sentiment another boost, suggesting scope for positive momentum.
In a fresh research note, Delaney points to Musk's recent $1 billion purchase of Tesla stock and the new performance-based award as key drivers of investor optimism, helping Tesla outperform the broader market in recent weeks.
- Track the latest moves in Tesla stock here.
Tesla shares are up 27.5% month-to-date, compared to a 2.7% gain for the S&P 500, giving the EV giant a positive year-to-date return once again. "We think investors view this as a positive given the outperformance that Tesla had post the 2018 plan," Delaney wrote, referring to the company’s new incentive plan for Musk.
From January 2018, when Musk's previous incentive award was announced, through September 4, 2025, when the new plan was unveiled, Tesla stock gained roughly 1,350%—far outpacing the S&P 500's 130% return over the same period.
Delaney maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla and raised the price target from $300 to $395.
Tesla Deliveries Could Pick Up In Second Half
Tesla is expected to report its third-quarter deliveries on or around Oct. 2, Delaney wrote, adding that the company could report better-than-expected sales in the second half of 2025.
The analyst raises the delivery estimates for the third and fourth quarter after looking at app downloads and consumer survey data.
"For vehicle deliveries, we now expect 455K in 3Q (up from 430K previously) and 450K in 4Q (up from 443K previously)," Delaney said.
Consumer survey data used by the analyst shows net purchase intent and net buzz about Tesla improving. The analyst predicts Tesla's sales in the US could be up year-over-year in the third quarter with a strong September.
The new quarterly estimates compare to consensus estimate of 439K and 441K for the third and fourth quarters respectively.
"We attribute the better 2H volumes in part to the recent Model Y L launch, in part based on somewhat better consumer survey data, and in part with IRA EV purchase credits set to expire on 9/30/25."
While Delaney raises estimates for the second half of 2025, a current estimate of 1.865 million units delivered in 2026 remains unchanged. The loss of EV credits and increased competition in Europe and China are listed as potential negatives in 2026 that could offset growth from new models.
Read Also: Tesla Q2 Earnings Highlights: Revenue And Earnings Fall Short; New Models Still Set For 2025–2026
Tesla's Future: Autonomy And Robotics
While Delaney kept a Neutral rating on Tesla stock, the analyst acknowledges future earnings per share growth for the company that could change the outlook.
"Longer term, we expect Tesla to grow its EPS driven in part by larger contributions from autonomy and robotics, although our base case expectation for profits in these areas is more measured than the company is targeting," Delaney said.
The analyst estimates Tesla's 2030 earnings per share could be in a range of $2 to $20 based on different outcomes.
"If Tesla can have outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target."
TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is up 0.9% to $429.57 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $212.11 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up 13.3% year-to-date in 2025.
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