Zinger Key Points
- Oracle stock jumps after strong Q4 results and upbeat 2026 outlook, with $15.9B revenue and $1.70 EPS beating estimates.
- Cloud revenue up 52% as Oracle plans $25B capex for 2026; analysts raise price targets as shares surge nearly 14%.
- Historic Summer Setup: 3 "Power Patterns" Triggering in the next 75 Days - Get The Details Now
Oracle Corp ORCL stock gained on Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results and issued an upbeat outlook commentary on Wednesday.
Oracle reported fourth-quarter revenue of $15.9 billion, up 11% compared to estimates of $15.58 billion, and adjusted earnings of $1.70 compared to estimates of $1.64. Oracle guided for total revenue of at least $67 billion in fiscal 2026.
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Cloud infrastructure revenue increased 52% year-over-year, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) consumption revenue grew by 62% in the fourth quarter.
What Analysts Are Saying
Wall Street analysts rerated the stock and raised their stock price targets.
Guggenheim analyst John Difucci reiterated Oracle with a Buy and a $220 price target.
Citizens JMP analyst Patrick Walravens maintained Oracle with a Market Outperform and raised the price target from $205 to $240.
JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy reiterated Oracle with a Neutral and raised the price target from $135 to $185.
Keybanc Capital Markets analyst Jackson Ader maintained Oracle with an Overweight and raised the price target from $200 to $225.
WestPark Capital analyst Curtis Shauger reiterated Oracle with a Buy and raised the price target from $195 to $246.
Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin maintained Oracle with a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $130 to $190.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Rishi Jaluria reiterated Oracle with a Sector Perform rating and raised the price target to $195 from $145.
Guggenheim: Oracle reported strong fourth-quarter results across the board, including accelerating IaaS growth for the year at 51%.
Even more impressive was guidance, as it’s benefiting from demand from all directions, Difucci said. The analyst said that the primary drivers of IaaS today are AI Training and traditional Cloud workloads. Difucci expects AI inferencing and database migrations to become more meaningful over the next year.
Capex of $9.1 billion significantly exceeded the consensus number of $3.9 billion, yielding FCF that is just negative for the year. Management said they expect fiscal 2026 capex of $25 billion (which is above Difucci’s $23.0 billion and the Street’s $19.9 billion) to fuel the top-line growth, the analyst said. Oracle stock might meander at times, but the trend here is up, as per the analyst, who noted this will be a multi-year Best Idea.
Difucci expects first-quarter revenue of $14.9 billion (prior $15.0 billion) and EPS of $1.46 (prior $1.48).
Citizens JMP: While Oracle’s data center buildout is not cheap — with $9 billion in capex this quarter (Citizens estimates $4 billion) and more than $25 billion expected in fiscal 2026 — Walravens continues to view the stock as an attractive opportunity for capital appreciation.
His positive outlook is backed by strong bookings growth driving RPO and revenue, the evolution of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) into a strategic cloud provider, a large total addressable market of approximately $745 billion ($265 billion from applications and $480 billion from infrastructure), and the long-term leadership of Chairman and CTO Larry Ellison and CEO Safra Catz.
Walravens expects first-quarter revenue of $15.0 billion and EPS of $1.50.
JPMorgan: Murphy’s preview of Oracle’s fourth-quarter earnings results emphasized the positive tone across his recent data points on AI demand.
The analyst reiterated that Oracle is an essential player in the AI market and specifically alluded to the possibility that Oracle might be positioned to achieve its quarterly total revenue growth guidance, representing a trend change from prior results.
He also expressed that Oracle’s premium valuation logically embeds expectations of a sustainable revenue growth trajectory appreciably higher than Oracle’s current reporting.
Ironically, RPO sheds light on what some investors might have been expecting. Still, the analyst said comments on fiscal 2026 are bullish on aspects related to demand, RPO and revenue growth. Overall, he continues to respect Oracle’s achievements in the AI arena while remaining mindful of valuation.
Murphy expects first-quarter revenue of $15.1 billion and EPS of $1.48.
Keybanc Capital Markets: Oracle sees demand that is hard for Ader to see, and it is spending to catch up. Capex of $9.1 billion came in way ahead of even the analyst’s above-consensus estimate of $4.3 billion entering the quarter, and he now expects over $25 billion in capex next year. Ader said he had flagged this coming out of the KBCM Industrial Conference a few weeks back.
Ader expects first-quarter revenue of $14.98 billion (prior $15.06 billion) and EPS of $1.47.
WestPark Capital: Oracle’s fourth-quarter performance showcased robust growth, particularly in its Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) and Cloud Application (SaaS) segments, with results surpassing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, Shauger said.
Given the clear momentum in Oracle’s business, the analyst raised his first-quarter revenue and EPS estimates from $15 billion and $1.49 to $15.1 billion and $1.51, above consensus estimates of $15 billion and $1.48, respectively. With Oracle’s cloud migration driving a multi-year acceleration, Shauger noted Oracle’s shares could rerate even further.
Piper Sandler: The caution flags Bracelin raised in April on the risk that capex might consume most or all of the fiscal 2026 operating cash flows were premature and overshadowed by a surprisingly strong RPO backlog that could double to $276 billion in fiscal 2026 (versus $138 billion in fiscal 2025), as per the analyst, driven by broad-based adoption of Oracle cloud database, applications, and AI infrastructure services.
He noted that Oracle has entered an entirely new wave of enterprise popularity that it has not seen since the Internet era in the late 1990s. The price target boost reflects increasing visibility into the growth potential. Increasing capital intensity risks that could widen the net debt position and pressure margins in the short run kept Bracelin at Neutral, assuming these risks elevate volatility and temper multiple expansion.
Bracelin expects first-quarter revenue of $15 billion and EPS of $1.48.
RBC Capital Markets: Oracle reported a solid quarter and posted solid RPO growth, leading shares up ~8% after market close, Jaluria noted.
Total revenue came in above consensus and guidance, with Cloud revenue topping the guidance range. Capex came in higher than expected in the quarter on the back of continued demand for capacity, the analyst said. While the quarter was a step in the right direction, with continued capacity constraints, he struggled to see a path to meaningful acceleration in the near term.
Jaluria expects first-quarter revenue of $14.98 billion (prior $14.81 billion) and EPS of $1.48 (prior $1.45).
ORCL Price Action: Oracle stock is up 13.03% at $199.57 at publication on Thursday.
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