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Articles written by CME Group

Beware of Time Lag in Monetary Policy

Markets

Four Key Questions on European Overnight Rates

Economics

AT A GLANCE

CME Group RepoFunds Rates and the European Central Bank’s €STR are both important overnight interest rates for the eurozone

RepoFunds Rates are secured, reflective of the credit quality of their respective countries, and responsive to ECB policy

When Will Fed Rate Hikes Kick In?

Federal Reserve

There can be a considerable lag, sometimes up to two years, for the effects of rate hikes to show up in economic data.



Unpacking Recession Indicators

Copper Diverges from Crude Oil amid Construction Boom, China Prospects

Asia

Commodities

The mining and refining of copper is extraordinarily energy intensive.  As such, it’s not surprising that so far this century, copper prices have shown a tight connection with the price of crude oil.  The past four months, however, have been an exception.  Since October 7, 2022, high-grade copper prices have risen from $3.38 per pound to over $4.00, while the price of West 

Recession Triggers and How to Spot Them

More than interest rates or inflation, jobs have a direct impact on the health of the economy in relation to consumer spending.



Palm Oil Monthly Update – February 2023

CME Group USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures Volume and Open Interest

In January 2023, CME Group crude palm oil volume totaled 27,069 lots (676,725 metric tons) and the end-of-month open interest was 48,017 lots (1,200,425 metric tons).

Are Euro ESTR and SOFR Traders’ Expectations Realistic?

Forex

Are Euro ESTR and SOFR Traders&#39; Expectations Realistic?

Post-Pandemic Challenges to Traditional Economic Thinking

Inflation has receded from its peak much sooner and more rapidly than many had expected, even if it has been and may continue to be bumpy ride. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised rates aggressively and yet unemployment has declined to historically low levels.

Investors Expect Fed, ECB Rate Cuts, but in Varying Degrees

For the moment, Euro Short-Term Rate (€STR) futures are looking a great deal like the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and Fed Funds Rate.  What all three futures markets have in common is that after a period of dramatic tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and  Federal Reserve (Fed), they are pricing one, or more likely two, 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike(s), to 

Q1 2023 Options Update

Options

A record year for options

Over 1B contracts traded in 2022, making it a record year in options trading. This volume creates greater liquidity, tighter spreads, and more flexibility when trading options.

Asset class highlights:

Are Fed, ECB Rate Cuts Coming Later this Year?

There are expectations for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to begin cutting rates after one or two more hikes.



Five FX Market Themes to Watch in 2023

Oats: From the Original Energy Contract to Trendy Dairy Alternative

Q1 2023 Agricultural Update

Now live: New Crop Weekly options

Introducing more ways to manage short-term exposure. The new product is an extension of Short-Dated New Crop options, with listing cycles occurring every Friday in February through August.

How you can benefit:

How Much Credit Does Fed Get for Tamping Down Inflation?

What role did the Fed&#39;s jumbo rate hikes play in cooling inflation, and did easing of the supply chain issues plus the fiscal stimulus also play a role?




U.S. Crude Oil Exports to EU Support WTI as Global Benchmark

Gold's Continued Rally Hinges on Fed Policy, U.S. Dollar

The price of gold has risen by over $300 per ounce since hitting its recent low in November 2022.  Even so, gold prices are only back to where they were last April. More broadly, gold prices have been range-bound since the summer of 2020.

Gold&#39;s Continued Rally Hinges on Fed Policy, U.S. Dollar

Palm Oil Monthly Update – January 2023

CME Group USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures Volume and Open Interest

In December 2022, CME Group crude palm oil volume totaled 15,802 lots (395,050 metric tons) and the end-of-month open interest was 45,733 lots (1,143,325 metric tons).

Is the S&P 500 Overvalued?

After achieving an 817% total return between March 2009 and the end of 2021, the S&amp;P 500® fell 18.5% in 2022.  Despite losing nearly one fifth of its value, the index might not be a bargain buy on some measures.  When one looks at the S&amp;P 500 market capitalization to GDP ratio, it’s around 140%.  That’s below its 2021 peak of 180%, but far above any other 