Trump Could Declare Housing Emergency In 2025? Polymarket Bettors Are Giving It A 34% Chance As Mortgage Distress Mounts

Bettors on Polymarket assigned a 34% likelihood of the Trump administration announcing a housing emergency this year.

‘Help With Morgage’

The odds spiked 3 percentage points in the last 24 hours, with a little over $4,000 wagered on the outcome.

The market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act before Dec. 31. Trump merely signaling intentions to declare a national emergency won't be enough.

Meanwhile, Google Searches for “help with mortgage” surpassed those during the 2008 financial crisis, according to an X post by Mortgage, signaling the gravity of the crisis.

Polymarket, based on Polygon POL/USD, allows users to bet on the outcomes using the USDC USDC/USD stablecoin.

The platform is not available to U.S. residents currently, but is expected to start operations in the near future.

Home Buyers Feel The Pinch

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the Trump administration "may" declare a national housing emergency in the fall, as the market remains constrained by high borrowing costs and tight supply

According to federal data, the median sales price of newly built homes in July was $403,800, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rates, which were near 2.65% in early 2021, are now in the mid-6% region, impacting household affordability.

Real estate listing website Realtor.com said recently that only 28% of homes on the market in August were affordable to a household earning the U.S. median income, down from 30% earlier this year.

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