Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has surged 11% over the past week, vindicating analysts’ calls for the four-year cycle to play out as in the past.
What Happened: In his latest "Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band" podcast, prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen reiterated that Bitcoin historically peaks in Q4 of the post-halving year, warning that overconfidence at this stage could be costly.
He noted that the 2025 cycle has closely mirrored 2020: highs in August, lows in September, followed by a year-end rally.
He emphasized a critical threshold: weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, currently near $101,000, could indicate that the cycle top has already passed.
While Bitcoin has surpassed the duration of the 2021 cycle since the bear market low, peak-to-peak analysis suggests roughly six more weeks of potential upside into late Q4.
Also Read: Bitcoin Consolidates At $124,000 Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Awaiting Permission To Surge
Why It Matters: Unlike previous bull markets, Cowen pointed out the absence of typical euphoria signals, social media hype, retail FOMO, and overheated on-chain metrics remain muted despite record prices.
Rising Bitcoin dominance supports his thesis, as capital consolidates around BTC, likely pulling liquidity away from altcoins and maintaining altcoin weakness.
He stressed that confirmation of a sustainable breakout requires multiple strong weekly closes above previous highs, noting that last cycle's October rally failed to continue.
What's Next: Cowen sees two scenarios: Bitcoin may still enter its final parabolic phase, or this cycle could defy historical norms.
His base case is that BTC tops out in Q4 2025, with any breakdown below the 50-week moving average serving as the clearest signal that the market cycle peak has passed.
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