Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) rebound from last week's $82,000 low to around $86,500 has traders debating whether the recent flush-out was a buying opportunity or a pause before deeper downside.
What Happened: New data from Santiment shows the answer depends heavily on timeframe.
Retail sentiment has flipped aggressively bearish after BTC's swing back toward $88,000, a setup that historically supports short-term bounces.
Funding rates reveal heavy short positioning, further increasing the likelihood of a near-term move toward $90,000.
But while conditions favor a relief rally, the broader trend still leans negative. Weakening network activity and ongoing whale distribution point to an unconfirmed long-term bottom.
Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Stable On Low-Volatility Wednesday Morning
Why It Matters: On-chain metrics highlight several concerning shifts:
- Network growth is fading: New BTC addresses have fallen from 3.37 million per week at the 2023 peak to 2.21 million now.
- Activity is cooling: Weekly active addresses dropped from 963,900 to 729,200.
- Whales are exiting – wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC have been consistently distributing for six straight weeks—opposite of typical bottoming behaviour.
- Retail is buying the dip: Smaller wallets are accumulating, a dynamic that rarely marks major market lows.
Together, this paints a picture where short-term sentiment and positioning could fuel a bounce, but structural weakness suggests long-term downside risk remains unresolved.
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