Mow’s Calculation
Mow pointed to Saylor’s personal stash of 17,732 BTC, based on his last public disclosure, and a 9.9% ownership of Strategy’s shares, as reflected in SEC filings.
As of this writing, Strategy holds 818,869 BTC in its reserves. Mow put Saylor's indirect exposure at 9.9% of the total holdings, translating to 81,068 BTC. Including Saylor's personal stash, his total effective exposure equaled 98,800 BTC.
Mow’s math showed a 1:1 valuation requires roughly $8.6 million per BTC to push Saylor's wealth past Musk's current wealth, estimated by Forbes at $826 billion. Saylor’s wealth was estimated at $5.4 billion.
However, he noted that if MSTR traded at a premium to its BTC holdings, it would amplify Saylor’s exposure and lower the required price threshold, which he estimated at $4.2 million per BTC.
| Saylor’s Personal BTC | Saylor’s Indirect Exposure To Strategy’s BTC Reserves | Total Effective BTC Exposure | Total Value When BTC Hits $8.6 Million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17,732 BTC | 81,068 BTC | 98,800 BTC | $849.68 Billion |
Counter Arguments From Analysts
Clearly, Mow made a lot of assumptions here.
Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo pointed out the calculation omits compounding Musk’s future net worth growth from ambitious projects, including the Dyson Swarm.
SpaceX’s Gains, Tesla’s BTC Stash Ignored
Mow admitted to the omissions, but said his hypothesis also doesn’t factor in Strategy purchasing more Bitcoin.
Price Action: Strategy shares fell 0.36% in after-hours trading after closing 5.02% higher at $186.97 during Thursday’s regular trading session.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings for Strategy indicate long-term weakness, while short- and medium-term trends remain positive.
Photo by Frederic Legrand – COMEO via Shutterstock
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