Odds that the U.S. would plunge into recession in 2025 dipped below 50% on decentralized prediction market Polymarket after the U.S. announced a trade deal with China on Sunday.
What Happened: Bets in favor of a betting contract titled “US recession in 2025?” dropped from 52% to 49% over the last 24 hours on the Polygon POL/USD-based platform.
As of this writing, bookmakers have wagered over $5 million on the bet. The outcome resolves to "Yes" if the economy experiences another quarter of negative growth or if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession before January 1, 2026.
Polymarket, which allows users to buy "Yes" and "No" shares in USD Coin USDC/USD, is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory restrictions.
See Also: Ethereum Flat After Pectra Upgrade, But Analyst Foresees Overhaul ‘Tailwind’ That Could Take ETH Above $2,000
Why It Matters: The dip in probability comes after the White House announced a trade deal between the U.S. and China in Geneva following high-level talks between the two countries.
President Donald Trump also said that “great progress” was made during the talks and that a "total reset" could be expected.
In response, stock futures spiked, with the Dow Jones Futures rallying over 400 points Sunday night.
Trump's sweeping tariff measures have caused turbulence in financial markets, spurred macroeconomic uncertainty and threatened product shortages.
The economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first quarterly contraction since the second quarter of 2022.
Photo Courtesy: Dilok Klaisataporn On Shutterstock.com
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