Oil markets rebounded sharply on Thursday as traders positioned ahead of Friday's high-stakes meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, while trimming their expectations for an immediate ceasefire deal.
- The USO ETF is surging rapidly. Check live prices here.
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 2% to $64, snapping a two-day losing streak after a 10% slide from July highs.
The move comes despite a bearish 2026 forecast from the International Energy Agency, which projected a record global surplus of 2.96 million barrels per day driven by surging OPEC+ supply.
Trump: A 25% Chance Meeting With Putin Fails
On Thursday, Trump said there is a 25% chance that the meeting with Putin will fail outright, suggesting that markets may be overpricing the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough.
“I think [if] I weren’t president, he would take over all of Ukraine,” Trump said.
"All I want to do is set the table for the next meeting, which should happen shortly," referring to a follow-up that would include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and possibly European leaders.
"I'd like to see it actually happen maybe in Alaska, where we just stay, because it's so much easier."
The comments came just hours before the anticipated face-to-face, which is taking place more than 42 months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. Trump reiterated that he'll quickly assess Putin's willingness to cooperate.
"I'll know within the first two minutes,” he said.
Earlier on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Putin's intentions as a bluff, saying the Russian leader has never seriously pursued a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a trilateral summit between Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug. 21 at just 7%, reflecting widespread skepticism about a swift diplomatic breakthrough.
Despite the low expectations for immediate results, traders are clearly bracing for headline risk, especially given Trump’s warning this week that "very severe consequences" will follow if Putin refuses to end the war.
Trump did not specify the measures, but he has previously floated the possibility of tightening sanctions on Russian oil.
The outcome of the Alaska meeting could shape the future of the Ukraine war—and potentially global energy flows.
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